South Beach & Yerba Buena Charts
Noe & Eureka Valley charts
Updated numbers table and graph for houses in Noe & Eureka Valleys. Note that of the houses reporting square footage (which usually runs from 60%-75% of all sales), the average size dropped 12% in the 1st Quarter from 2012’s average size. This will typically affect dollar per square foot (increasing it, because smaller homes usually generate higher dollar per square foot values) as well as average sales price (lowering it because smaller houses sell for less). One quarter’s data is not definitive, though the trend upward is clear.
Averages are very general statistics that may fluctuate for other reasons besides changes in value. There is no “average house” or “median house” consistent from year to year, of which sales can be annually compared to calculate exact changes in market values. Statistics are most useful for ascertaining market trends over the longer term.
The only way to assess the approximate fair market value of any particular house is by a comparative market analysis crafted to its particular – and in San Francisco, often relatively unique – specifications.
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether.
All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. However, all things are rarely equal in SF real estate. There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Exact location within a neighborhood, condition, curb appeal, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values.
All data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors or omissions, and is subject to revision.
April Newsletter: A Hot Market Getting Hotter
San Francisco: A Hot Market Getting Hotter
1st Quarter 2013 Market Report
In 2012, the market turned with a vengeance and grew very hot very quickly. Now in 2013 it has grown even hotter. Recent deal-making stories almost make the seemingly crazy, multiple-offer tales of last year appear sedate. The supply of listings is drastically low against buyer demand, and the pace of price appreciation looks to be accelerating. Some city neighborhoods appear to be surpassing the previous peak values reached in 2007-2008. As seen below, the first quarter’s numbers reveal big increases in home values year over year. And the month of March alone saw a particularly big jump of almost 9% above February’s median price.
March sales prices reflect the heat of the market 4-8 weeks earlier, when the offers were actually negotiated. Much of the first quarter’s sales data reflects offers negotiated in late 2012. In a rapidly changing market, we’re always looking in the rearview mirror.
How Does Supply & Demand Affect Prices?
The past 18 months give a text book example of how the supply and demand dynamic affects home values. Months supply of inventory (MSI) measures the strength of buyer demand against the available inventory of homes to purchase: the lower the MSI, the hotter the market. The hotter the market, the greater the upward pressure on prices.
This link shows the details of the recent increases in median sales price:
SF Median Home Price by Month
Sales Prices Over & Under List Price
As the market has strengthened, the percentage of SF homes selling for over — and sometimes far over — list price, has soared to almost unbelievable levels. In the last 2 months, 30% of SF house sales have sold for 15% or more above asking price.
This link shows the huge decline in inventory since the market turnaround began. Typically, we see a surge in early spring. Not this year, at least not so far:
Inventory of Listings for Sale
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
This is another excellent indicator of demand vs. supply, and it is now at the highest levels in memory for virtually all property types.
This link goes to our chart on average days on market. Generally speaking, the hotter the market, the faster listings go into contract and that is what we are indeed seeing now:
Average Days on Market
Real Data SF: San Francisco Prices by Neighborhood
Here’s our latest in-depth price survey by neighborhood and property type. We begin, above and immediately below, with the quintessential American dream: the 3 bedroom single family home. There were 445 sales spanning the five month period from September 2012 through February of this year, making this the second most popular property type in number of sales after two bedroom condos.
Continue reading “Real Data SF: San Francisco Prices by Neighborhood”