I’m back! (More on this later….)
I’m so excited to present this heat map of San Francisco neighborhoods, which I believe may be the first of its kind. The idea for this started around a year ago: thank you Claude, and a shout-out to my son, too, who helped me bring this coding part of this project to fruition.
Be sure to click on the “fullscreen” button on the map below to expand it. We will get into the qualifications shortly, but what jumps out at me is how the biggest price increases are broadly located across SF’s traditionally most expensive neighborhoods for single family homes — Pac and Presidio Heights, Sea Cliff, Cow Hollow and the Marina — while SF’s more modest neighborhoods, geographically located in the southeast of the city and the far west, have faired the worst. Areas in the center of the city are a mixed bag. In essence, this is the “K” economy in action in San Francisco residential real estate.
I chose 2022 as the base comparison year for a couple of reasons. Mortgage rates started rising around the beginning of that year in anticipation of the Fed raising rates. The consequence was that the hot post-COVID market came to a screeching halt (next chart). This seemed like as good a place as any to start. And if you’d like to see any other metrics charted on it, let me know and I’ll see what I can do!
Now for the qualifications: Some of SF’s smallest neighborhoods (MLS Subdistricts) have very limited house sales – they barely made the 5 sale minimum to make it in (Sea Cliff, Little Hollywood, Lone Mountain). Plenty of condo-heavy neighborhoods south of market didn’t make it in at all.
There are some unexpected results: You’d think that Noe Valley would be among the top performers. Though prices increased 2.7%, it didn’t come close to the 18.3% increase just next door in Eureka Valley. My guess is that it’s because Noe Valley had three times as many sales and includes a wider range of homes. These factors have brought the median down.
Meanwhile, more affordable neighborhoods in the west of the city, like the Outer Richmond and Lakeshore showed significant appreciation, while others like the Outer Sunset and Outer Parkside did not.
Here’s a chart of top 10 winners and losers by neighborhood. It lines up pretty well with the K-economy theory. Perhaps the big exception is Forest Hill on the Bottom 10 list: one of the reasons it’s one of my perennial favorites as an affordable luxury enclave.
There’s been plenty of ink spilled on how the top end of SF’s residential market is thriving because of the ai boom and soaring stock prices more generally. I wrote about it at the end of last year. But for those who want to dive into the details, and enough charts to make a statistician cry, here’s a link to Compass’s April Market Report.
Some News about Me
My loyal readers may have noticed that I’ve been unusually quiet this year. There have been a couple of reasons for that. The passing of my mother-in-law, a towering figure in a diminutive body, who merited a widely-read obit in the NY Times, had my attention focused elsewhere. Secondly, as of the January 1, I decided to leave Compass and go back to being and independent, unaffiliated broker. (Compass charts are used with acknowledgement and permission.). My plan is to step back from the day-to-day business of real estate brokerage – actively representing buyers and sellers – and instead to be a resource for people looking for help with their real estate needs. After 25 years in this business, I know most of the top agents in the city personally – at Compass and elsewhere – as well as many fine attorneys, contractors and other professionals in real estate related trades. It would be my pleasure to match you with the right person for your needs. In addition, I plan to continue to follow the market and write about what interests me. I may throw in some more personal posts now and then as well.
So do keep in touch. I’m still here. As always, your comments, questions and referrals are greatly appreciated!
Misha