Category: Blog

Posted on

Real Data SF – July 2013 Newsletter: Of Bubbles and Froth

The other day I was talking to a business-savvy fellow who has been looking to get into the real estate market since 2009. Back then, he recounted, everyone thought he was crazy to want to buy something. Ultimately he didn’t. Recently I introduced him to some clients of mine who were looking to partner up with someone on a “fixer” project. Surveying the $1 million prices “fixers” seem to be going for, he used the words “bubble” and “frothy” to describe what’s going on in SF right now.

Is he right? Let’s leave aside the question of whether we should consider homes “investments,” as we do stocks. (In general, I don’t think we should: click here for U.S. long-term home appreciation stats prior to the housing recovery.) Instead, let’s simply focus on whether, after 18 months of breath-taking price increases here in SF, we are already in a new housing market bubble.

Continue reading “Real Data SF – July 2013 Newsletter: Of Bubbles and Froth”

Posted on

San Francisco & Bay Area Home Values – in Maps

May 2013 Update

Below are 3 maps delineating recent median home sales prices and/or average dollar per square foot values for San Francisco neighborhoods and communities around the Bay Area. These statistics are generalities which may fluctuate for a variety of reasons, but still give an idea of comparative home values in and around the city.

Generally speaking, home price appreciation is continuing and indeed accelerating in 2013, extending the upward swing that began in 2012. This is being supercharged by increasing demand meeting inadequate supply. For more information about current market conditions and trends, please click on the “Market Dynamics Charts” link above.

In the maps below, “k” signifies thousands of dollars; “m” signifies millions; “$/sf” means average dollar per square foot; and “N/A” means there wasn’t enough data to generate a reliable number.

Home Values around the San Francisco

1

San Francisco Neighborhood HOUSE Values

2

San Francisco Neighborhood CONDO Values

3

Real estate statistics in the Bay Area are based upon that relatively unique basket of homes that happen to sell within any given period, so instead of being exact measurements applicable to specific properties, they should be considered indications of the direction and approximate scale of market trends.

Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred above and half below – a single additional sale can sometimes make a 3-5% difference in overall median price, especially when the number of sales is low. Dollar per square foot is based on “livable space”, which should not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms” and “in-law apartments”). Square footage figures are often unreported, measured in different ways or simply unreliable. Both these statistics can be affected by other factors besides changes in value, such as seasonality, available inventory, variations in buyer profile, changes in the distressed and luxury home markets, and variations in average home size (all things being equal, a smaller home will have a lower sales price but a higher dollar per square foot value than a larger home).
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. If you have any questions, please contact us.

Posted on

The 2012 SF Real Estate Wrap-Up

Happy New Year everyone! As promised, here is a link to Paragon’s comprehensive analysis of trends in the San Francisco residential market and beyond in 2012. You’ll find 19 incredible charts and maps covering a host of metrics and I highly recommend a quick scan of the online newsletter to find the stuff that might interest you. I’m going to cherry-pick just a handful of my favorites to discuss below.

Continue reading “The 2012 SF Real Estate Wrap-Up”

Posted on

When Zen Meets Myst

 

 

You get to see a lot of homes in this business.  And to be honest, pretty soon one “gorgeously renovated, top-of-the-line remodel” looks pretty much like the next.  The same glass tile backsplash; the same exotic wood flooring; and goodness knows, the same white, or taupe, or ever-so-elegant pastel color palette.

But once in a while you come across a house that is so unusual, so unapologetically personal, that you simply have to marvel at the vision of the architect and the courage of the owner.

 

467 Duncan is such a house.  Completely rebuilt around 2005, it looks like the sort of Zen temple you might find in the lost world of Myst.

Where to start?  Perhaps the spiral staircase enclosed in an open air tower that leads up from one master bedroom to a cat-walk across the roof and then down to another bedroom, and to a hidden side-garden, and – through a curving copper door – surprise!, back into the living room!

Or I could mention the stair detail in the wall (see the picture below) that leads to a literal cat-walk  at ceiling height, so that the owners’ cats would have a cool way to get from room to room.

Or the bedrooms, with real shoji screens,exquisitely restrained wood cabinetry and a perimeter of loose black river pebbles.  “Organic” doesn’t begin to describe.  This is architectural sculpture.

Four bedrooms, three baths, and over 2,850 sf, it’s been priced at $2.4 million and now it’s at $2.175.  I’ve seen plenty of houses with no character and less to offer sell for much more.

But. But….  How do you value a house like this?  It’s so personal that no amount of staging can stage the personality out of it.   Its uniqueness defies an easy “fix.”  Or any fix for that matter.  Raze it and start again?  Not at that price.  And besides, that would be criminal.

So 467 Duncan waits like an inscrutable puzzle in Myst for the right owner to come and unlock its secrets.  So far it’s been waiting 70 days.

I’m sending the owner and the agent the Zen equivalent of luck.  They deserve it.