Category: Luxury Market

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December Newsletter: SF Neighborhood Values

San Francisco Neighborhood Values

December 2012

The general market dynamics in November were little changed from October, so for a different perspective, below are long-term trends in average sales prices and average dollar-per-square-foot values in a variety of areas around the city. The last sales period assessed on the charts is made up of the three months September through November; the neighborhoods chosen were picked for their high volume of sales for the property type being tracked — generally speaking, the greater the volume of sales, the more reliable the statistics.

Pretty much all areas of San Francisco are now showing the same general trend line, a distinct and substantial recovery in values, though some neighborhoods began their recovery earlier in the year and have seen greater increases year to date.

If you’d like to review the overall real estate market dynamics of San Francisco — months supply of inventory, days on market, the number of new listings coming on market, percentage of listings accepting offers, and so on — these can be found online here: SF December Market Report


Inner & Central Richmond House Values
House sales here over the past three months had an average sales price of $1,186,000 at an average of $575 per square foot. Compared to 2011, those figures reflect a 13% to 14% increase.


Central & Outer Sunset & Parkside
This table shows the changes in average sales price and dollar per square foot since 1995. One can also see that the average size of the houses sold can fluctuate (which will affect the average sales price). Distressed home sales are in rapid decline here, as they are throughout the city. The average dollar per square foot is up about 9% since 2011.
Chart


Bernal Heights House Values
With an average sales price of $896,000 and a distressed home market that has basically disappeared, the Bernal Heights averages are up about 19% from the bottom of the market in 2011. And getting very close to the previous peak in values in 2007.
Numbers Table


Noe & Eureka Valley House Values
Average house sales price in this extremely hot market area was $1,665,000 in the past 3 months, which is actually higher than previous peak values in 2008. However, we’ll have to wait to see what occurs over the longer trend since seasonality is one of the factors in prices. Average dollar per square foot is still somewhat below the 2008 peak.
Chart


Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys: Condo Values
Condo values in these highly sought after Upper-Market neighborhoods have followed a similar trajectory. The average condo sales price here over the past 3 months was $1,000,000.
Numbers Table


Prestige Northern Neighborhoods
The most expensive area for houses in San Francisco is in the northern band of old-prestige neighborhoods running from Telegraph Hill in the east to Sea Cliff in the west. As the luxury market has rebounded in a big way in 2012, we’ve seen increases in value in the 18% to 20% range since the market bottom in 2010.


South Beach – Yerba Buena Condo Values
The greater South Beach area has seen a rebound in condo values in the 15% to 20% range. This area has some of the most expensive condos in the city, many featuring spectacular views.
Numbers Table


Pacific Heights-Marina Condo Values
At $1,235,000, the average condo sales price in the neighborhoods of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina is now back up to the previous peak-value level of 2008. While the condos in South Beach have all been built in the last 15 years or so, condos in these older prestige neighborhoods are in buildings typically built 70 – 100 years ago.


Portola & Mission Terrace House Values
The southern-most neighborhoods of San Francisco were those hit hardest by the distressed sale crisis. But the distressed property market is rapidly dwindling here and prices have been rebounding dramatically in the past 6 months. The recovery here started a step behind the recoveries in the most affluent neighborhoods, but is now accelerating rapidly.

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Real Data SF November Newsletter

Welcome to the very first edition of Real Data SF, a monthly newsletter about the San Francisco real estate market.

If real data, with lots of charts and analysis is your cup of tea, then please read on. Because that’s what I’ll be doing here. In addition, there’ll be the occasional recipe, restaurant review, and heads-up on fun stuff to do in SF. Comments, feedback, suggestions, always welcome of course. Now let’s crunch some numbers!

San Francisco’s Housing Market Kicks in the After-Burners

Many people who don’t necessarily follow real estate that closely aren’t aware that SF’s residential market has been on fire since the start of 2012. Take a look at this chart:

Starting in January, demand – followed by prices – took off. After a steep climb through April, prices took a breather through the summer – only to take off again in autumn.

What’s more, because this chart includes both distressed and non-distressed sales across all neighborhoods in SF – from Seacliff mansions to Bayview bungalows– it doesn’t reflect the extent to which the middle and upper end of the housing market has recovered. If you look at non-distressed sales above $1.5 million – and that’s hardly a luxury home in SF any more – prices on a per square foot basis are within striking distance of their 2008 all-time highs, fueled by an enormous rally in the third quarter.

Will this continue? Though activity typically slows down during the winter and holiday months, we’re not sure it’s going to happen this year. Why? High demand and very low inventory.

For more charts, including one that shows our bubble-pop-recovery cycle all the way back to 1982, click here.

Only sales reported to MLS are included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. (c) Paragon Real Estate Group

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SF Luxury Home Report

The San Francisco Luxury Home Market

A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group

The luxury home market in San Francisco – typically defined as houses, condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more – experienced a big surge in activity in the second quarter of 2012. The third quarter saw a decline typical for the summer months, but was still 50% higher than the third quarter of last year. With the increased demand has come a significant increase in values throughout the city.

The SF luxury home segment is currently made up of three dynamics: 1) general-appeal (often spectacular), well-priced listings that buyers are jumping all over and often bidding up far over the asking price, 2) listings that the market has deemed considerably overpriced – by hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars – that the market is generally ignoring, and 3) niche or special-circumstance properties for which there is an extremely limited buyer pool – even if priced fairly, these can take some time to sell.

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Sales Over, Under & At List Price

In the third quarter, a high percentage, 44%, of luxury home sales in San Francisco sold for above asking price; 15% sold for at least 10% over asking price – an indication of very strong demand; 42% sold below original list price; and 14% closed at list price. It should be noted that a fair number of high-end homes have sold off-market in 2012, i.e., not listed or reported to MLS, from which we derive our data.

Average Dollar per Square Foot

Luxury homes throughout the city have seen a substantial jump in dollar per square foot values since 2011. Values vary widely by neighborhood and property type, and can generally range anywhere from $500 to $2000 per square foot. The highest per square foot values are typically found in the most prestigious mansions on the north side of town and in penthouse condos in the South Beach/ Yerba Buena and Pacific Heights/ Russian Hill areas. Absolutely spectacular views are a common aspect of these sales.

Luxury Home Unit Sales

The second and third quarters of 2012 saw the highest number of luxury home sales of any quarter since 2008. The decline in the third quarter was typical for this market segment during the summer months, and was over 50% higher than the third quarter of 2011.

Sales Price to Original List Price by Days on Market

Most of the luxury homes that sell are sold relatively quickly after the listings arrive on market, and these sales are selling for an average of 102% of list price. Those listings that go through price reductions sell at a significant discount to original price and spend almost 3 months longer on market. And even in a strong market, a solid percentage of listings don’t sell at all, almost always due to being perceived as overpriced.

Inventory of Available Listings

As is typical, September was the month with the highest number of new listings hitting the market, which often leads to an autumn surge in closed sales. It is almost certain that the number of new listings and available inventory will now continue to dwindle until the new year begins. More often than not, the luxury home market goes into a semi-hibernation from Thanksgiving to mid-January.

San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales by District and Price Range

Home sales with a price of $1,500,000 and above now take place across the city, but the sales cluster in certain areas and prices vary widely by location. These 4 charts break the luxury home market into price segments and property types by Realtor district.

SF HOUSES Selling for $1,500,000 to $1,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $2,000,000 to $4,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $5,000,000 or More 

SF CONDOS, CO-OPS & TICs Selling for $1,500,000 or More 

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Summer’s Unflagging Demand Fuels Higher SF Home Prices

San Francisco Real Estate Market: September 2012 Update

Typically, the real estate market slows down during the summer months – a period often called the summer doldrums — but that certainly did not occur this year in San Francisco: unflagging buyer demand continued through August. The market recovery that began in some SF neighborhoods late last year has now spread throughout the city. Bay Area, state and national home markets are also showing clear, if still early signs of turnaround.
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San Francisco House Values Rising

It’s rare that the 3 main statistical measurements of home value line up so perfectly, but comparing this summer’s house sales to last summer’s shows 12% increases across the board. Which doesn’t mean uniform appreciation for SF homes: changes in value vary by property and neighborhood. This analysis and the one following are for non-distressed sales in the city’s 8 northern and central districts, which generally run north of the Sloat Blvd/ Highway 280 line: The 2 southern districts were hit much harder by foreclosures and though they too are recovering quickly, mixing in their data distorts the results. During this 3-month period, house sales volume in the 8 districts was up 5% in units and 18% in dollar volume — and would be up much higher if more inventory had been available. Average days on market fell from 52 days to 39 days year over year.

San Francisco Condo Values Rising

The condo statistics don’t line up quite as neatly, but nearly so: they’re up from 9.4% to almost 12.5%, with the average being about 11%, which is very close to the 12% increase seen in houses. (Remember: these statistics are generalities regarding the sale of many hundreds of relatively unique homes.) Closed sales follow the time when new listings hit the market and offers are negotiated by 4 to 10 weeks, so these charts reflect the market from April through July. Non-distressed condo sales volume in the 8 northern/central city districts during this 3-month period is up 41% in units and 54% in dollar volume from last summer, and average days on market dropped from 69 days to 47 days.

Most Listings Selling At or Over Asking Price

San Francisco is currently seeing remarkable percentages of homes selling above and sometimes far above the asking price: 64% of house sales and 45% of condo sales in August closed at above list price, and solid percentages sold at 10% higher or more. This is perhaps as good a snapshot as any of the ferocious heat of buyer demand right now. (Sales that were within a quarter percent of 100% were considered “At List Price.”)

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

No summer slowdown is showing up in this important metric of supply and demand.

Price Reductions, Sales Price Percentages, Time on Market

Over two thirds of SF listings are selling quickly at an average of almost 4% over the asking price. Those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell (over 2 1?2 months longer on average) to close at a significant discount to original price. For every listing selling after a price reduction, another listing expires or is withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The keys to getting the best price for your home: price it right to begin with; prepare it to show at its absolute best; comprehensively market it to buyers and agents; negotiate offers aggressively. And it doesn’t hurt to take advantage of a low inventory/high demand market.

Distressed House Sales Declining

Distressed house sales – bank-owned and short sales – are clustered in the city’s two southern districts, running from Bayview to Oceanview. However, these listings are rapidly declining as the market turns around and values increase: distressed house sales have dropped from 20% of sales in 2011 to 12% in August 2012. This becomes a virtuous circle of market recovery: higher values mean fewer distressed listings; fewer distressed listings lessen their (significant) negative effect on neighborhood home values.

Distressed Condo Sales Sinking

The distressed condo segment of the SF market is dwindling rapidly both as a percentage of total sales (from 20% in 2011 to 14% YTD, and 10% in August 2012), and even more dramatically, as a percentage of listings for sale (down to only 4% as of August 31). The greatest number of distressed condo sales has been in the greater SoMa/ South Beach area, where so many of the new, big developments were built over the past 10-15 years, but the impact of these sales is shrinking very quickly everywhere in the city.

Unit Sales Up

Condo and 2-4 unit building unit sales are up over 20% from last year this time – this time comparing a six-month period of each year. House sales — and indeed sales of all types — would certainly be up by a much greater percentage if there were simply more listings for buyers to purchase.

Inventory Way Down

There’s no ambiguity in this chart: An inadequate number of new listings and extremely high demand have kept the inventory of listings available to choose from on any given day lower than at any time in recent memory. It’s not unusual for September to bring a large burst of new listings to fuel the autumn sales season: in this chart, you can see the big jump in September 2010 and the smaller surge in September 2011. Buyers and their agents are certainly praying for a surge in inventory to alleviate the intense competition for available homes.

Days on Market Continue to Decline

The trend is clear: listings are selling much more quickly. Though 37 days as an average is very, very low — nationally, there’s excitement that the figure just fell to 69 days — many new listings in the city are accepting offers within 7-10 days of coming on market.

Values by Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count

We just completed our detailed semi-annual survey of SF home values. This is one of seven charts: the complete report can be found by clicking on the Market Dynamics Charts link in the footer below and then selecting Neighborhood Values from the sections listed on the upper left of the webpage.

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Home Sales by Price Segment

San Francisco Neighborhood Home Prices by Price Segment

These charts show the breakdown of San Francisco home sales as reported to the Multiple Listing Service in the first six months of 2012. The analyses are sorted by city district by the number of transactions in different price segments. The star on each map corresponds to the district being analyzed.

Whether you are considering a home purchase within a certain price range or contemplating the sale of your property in a certain neighborhood, this may give a sense of what sells for how much where in San Francisco.

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The San Francisco Luxury Home Market

A Market Overview

The luxury home market in San Francisco – typically defined as houses, condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more – experienced a big surge in activity in the second quarter of 2012. Below are a handful of charts analyzing sales by San Francisco district over the past 12 months, breaking the luxury house market in particular into three different price segments.

Our complete report can be found online here: SF Luxury Home Market Report

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San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales by District and Price Range

SF HOUSES Selling for $1,500,000 to $1,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $2,000,000 to $4,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $5,000,000 or More

SF CONDOS, CO-OPS & TICs Selling for $1,500,000 or More

San Francisco Luxury Home Unit Sales

The second quarter of 2012 saw a substantial jump in the sales of expensive homes.

Average House Sales Price, Prestige Northern Neighborhoods

This is a sample of the many area specific analyses we perform. This chart includes a wide range of prestigious northern neighborhoods of differing values, so the numbers should be considered very general approximations. The reason why we put them all in the same basket is to get a large enough number of sales to be meaningful statistically.

Sales not reported to MLS – such as many new-development condo sales and a fair number of high-end off-market sales – are not included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and are subject to revision.