Category: Market News

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El Niño Doesn’t Appear to Have Dampened the SF Housing Market

It happens every year. People decide that holiday parties, visiting with family, and staying dry are more important than visiting open houses on the week-end. Activity drops and often so do prices. But with the first glimmers of sunshine and longer days, buyers and sellers get back into the market and the home buying/selling season takes off.

And that seems to be exactly what’s happening this year, despite the lingering effects of El Niño and a bumpy stock market ride. Take a look at the chart below:

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The 2015 San Francisco Real Estate Wrap-Up

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Happy New Year everyone!  San Francisco residential real estate recorded another year of double-digit appreciation last year.  Our Chief Market Analyst has been busy slicing and dicing the data every which-way, and has created over 20 charts that serve up the market from soup to nuts (which, is exactly how some people view it!).  You can experience the full meal at Paragon Real Estate Group’s main website.  I’m doing the prix fixe menu here for those with less time and/or appetite.

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It’s Now a Buyers’ Market for Higher End Homes and Condos

“Months’ Supply of Inventory,” or MSI, shows the theoretical number of months needed to “absorb” available homes for sale in a given month based on the number of homes going into contract in a given month. The shorter the time period, the stronger the market for sellers, leading to upward pricing pressure.  Longer time periods indicate slower absorption and a buyers’ market.

The chart below illustrates the dramatic difference in MSI for homes up to the median price ($1.3 million for houses, $1.1 million for condos) and in the next price segment higher, versus the luxury home segment, defined here as houses selling for $2,000,000+ and condos for $1,500,000+. (By this definition, luxury sales currently make up about 20% of San Francisco’s home sales.)
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West Portal, Quiet, and Happy To Be Unnoticed

Photos and content regarding retail activities in West Portal have been generously provided by LostinSF.com, the only French-American insider’s guide to San Francisco and the Bay Area. The French version of this article can be found here.

 

Named after the western entrance to a transit tunnel completed a century ago, the quiet neighborhood of West Portal is proud of having been overlooked by much of the frenzied redevelopment going on in many other parts of San Francisco. No big white Google or Apple buses prowl the streets here.  You want bars filled with 20 somethings ordering $12 cocktails and artisan beers?  Head downhill to the warmer climes of the Mission.  Here, in the foggy western shadow of San Continue reading “West Portal, Quiet, and Happy To Be Unnoticed”

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San Francisco’s “Value” Neighborhoods Take Off as Inventory Remains Low

April Newsletter

I’ve been opining for some time that many of San Francisco’s previously overlooked neighborhoods are seeing rapid home-price appreciation as buyers are being priced out of their first and second choices. I now have data to confirm it.

When the SF market recovery began in 2012, the more affluent neighborhoods led the way in rapid home-price appreciation. This is what you’d expect to happen as the “haves” tend to see their prospects improve before the “have nots.” But starting in 2014, the more affordable neighborhoods have taken the lead. Of course, there are few places outside San Francisco where houses of $1.2 million would constitute the “affordable” segment of the market, but as median house prices in the greater Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys area Continue reading “San Francisco’s “Value” Neighborhoods Take Off as Inventory Remains Low”

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Here We Go Again?: Signs Point to Another Feverish Spring Market

Spring-shoots-dollars

It’s easy to sympathize with potential buyers who are sitting the market out in the hope that … “sanity will prevail” …”…the market will stabilize…” “…prices have to come down sooner or later….” Alas, for buyers at least, our analysis indicates the contrary: 2015 looks like it’s getting off to a very strong start.

Below are key takeaways from our recent analysis of sales trends over the last few months, which include the seasonally quiet year-end holiday period, along with what we’ve been seeing since the start of the year. These preliminary statistics, and, even more so, reports “from the trenches,” suggest that we may well be looking at the fourth intense spring season since the market recovery began in early 2012.

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New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little

After the feverish spring 2014 market, home prices in the high-price tier – which applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties – flattened and then ticked down a little, while more affordable home segments continued to tick up: It’s not unusual for the market to cool off and plateau during the summer months. The October 2014 Case-Shiller Index just released (on December 30), begins to reflect the autumn selling season, which starts after Labor Day: The market typically begins to heat up again in autumn. (Note that transactions negotiated in September generally start closing in October.)

According to the newest Index, all Bay Area home price segments ticked up in October by about 1%, plus or minus depending on segment. Note that small monthly fluctuations are not particularly meaningful until substantiated over a longer term.

This chart tracks the high-tier-price market since the recovery began in 2012 using Case-Shiller data. The C-S Continue reading “New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little”

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Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood

Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

The charts below are based upon transactions reported to MLS for 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Of course, the era, style, amenities and average size of homes will Continue reading “Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood”