The June S&P Case-Shiller Index report released today continued to reflect the surge in Bay Area home values. Remember that Case-Shiller measures house values in a 5-county area and generally reflects the heat of the market 4-6 months ago. So far in 2012, the city of San Francisco itself is outperforming the 5-county area.
Our full report on Case-Shiller is online here: http://www.paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF
San Francisco Neighborhood Home Prices by Price Segment
These charts show the breakdown of San Francisco home sales as reported to the Multiple Listing Service in the first six months of 2012. The analyses are sorted by city district by the number of transactions in different price segments. The star on each map corresponds to the district being analyzed.
Whether you are considering a home purchase within a certain price range or contemplating the sale of your property in a certain neighborhood, this may give a sense of what sells for how much where in San Francisco.
The May reading for the S&P Case-Shiller Index, released today, substantiated what we’ve known for quite some time: the SF home market (though the Index is for the 5-County Metro Area) is rapidly accelerating. Since the Index is a rolling 3-month average and published 2 months after the title month, it is always 3-4 months behind what is actually occurring in the market between buyers and sellers.
Our entire report on the Case-Shiller Index is on the Paragon Market Dynamics section here: http://paragon-re.com/Case_Shiller_Index_Deciphered_for_SF
A Market Overview
The luxury home market in San Francisco – typically defined as houses, condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more – experienced a big surge in activity in the second quarter of 2012. Below are a handful of charts analyzing sales by San Francisco district over the past 12 months, breaking the luxury house market in particular into three different price segments.
Our complete report can be found online here: SF Luxury Home Market Report
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San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales by District and Price Range
SF HOUSES Selling for $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
SF HOUSES Selling for $2,000,000 to $4,999,999
SF HOUSES Selling for $5,000,000 or More
SF CONDOS, CO-OPS & TICs Selling for $1,500,000 or More
San Francisco Luxury Home Unit Sales
The second quarter of 2012 saw a substantial jump in the sales of expensive homes.
Average House Sales Price, Prestige Northern Neighborhoods
This is a sample of the many area specific analyses we perform. This chart includes a wide range of prestigious northern neighborhoods of differing values, so the numbers should be considered very general approximations. The reason why we put them all in the same basket is to get a large enough number of sales to be meaningful statistically.
Sales not reported to MLS – such as many new-development condo sales and a fair number of high-end off-market sales – are not included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and are subject to revision.
Typically, after a multi-years’ downturn such as occurred in the early eighties and the early nineties and such as we’re just coming out of now, when the market turns, appreciation goes into its own multi-year climb. Even though the market went absolutely crazy in 1996, and despite the bubble popping in 2008, people who bought then have seen 120% appreciation in home value (much less the vastly larger return on their initial down-payment investment, not to mention the huge tax benefits — and that it was an investment that also was a home).
Though the absolutely best time recently to buy in San Francisco, in retrospect, was in 2010-2011, we are still just past the cusp of the bottom of the market. Historically, that is a very good time to buy.
Please note that in the below Case-Shiller chart, the graph is not proportional to the time period from 1988 to 2000: those 12 years show up as much shorter than the 12 years from 2000 to 2012.
