Continue reading “Real Data SF: San Francisco Prices by Neighborhood”
San Francisco Home Values by Neighborhood & Bedroom Count
The March 2013 Paragon Market
We’ve just completed our semiannual review of SF house and condo values by average and median prices, average size and average dollar per square foot for sales occurring September 1, 2012 – February 28, 2013, as reported to MLS.
The maps contain median sales price data only, while the tables include the full range of value statistics. (The tables are easier to read, but they’re not as colorful.) If a price is followed by a “k” it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions. Remember that medians and averages are very general statistics.
Further down in the newsletter are charts tracking supply and demand dynamics and price appreciation trends for the city’s residential real estate market. Statistical definitions can be found at the very bottom. For the smaller images, you’ll need to click-to-expand them to really make them decipherable.
4-Bedroom House Values
This is the table for 4-bedroom house sales over the past 6 months. This link goes to the full analysis by property type, neighborhood and bedroom count.
Neighborhood, Property Type, Bedrooms
2-Bedroom Condo Median Price Map
A map of median sales prices for 2-bedroom condos around the city. The table in the full analysis provides further statistical measures.
Full Analysis
Trends in Inventory & Sales Volume
Sometimes there’s nothing like a chart to depict trends. Here one can clearly see the drastic decline in inventory. And this link goes to a chart on Months Supply of Inventory, another statistic of supply and demand:
Months Supply of Inventory
New Listings Coming on Market
The quantity of new listings ebbs and flows by season, however even accounting for seasonality, the number of new listings coming on market is much lower than usual. And this link shows the increasing demand since the market recovery really got underway in 2012:
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Median Price Trends by Month
Monthly price data often fluctuates due to a variety factors. For example, median and average prices almost always drop in January since the higher end of the market usually checks out for the holidays: Values haven’t changed; the demographic of buyers and available inventory changed. However, the clear upward trajectory of prices over the past year is clear in both median and average sales prices.
Average Price Trends
The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value.
AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC’s will be higher than a multi-unit building’s (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views.
The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities.
Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940′s Sunset house with “bedrooms” and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown.
“Looking at 245 Bay Area ZIP codes, Zillow projects that 244 will see home values ratchet up by significant margins in 2013, with 27 ZIPs seeing double-digit appreciation…Popular San Francisco neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, the Castro, Twin Peaks, the Mission and Bernal Heights are poised for double-digit appreciation, along with Menlo Park, Larkspur, Palo Alto, Alameda and North Berkeley, Zillow predicts.”
The full article is here:
San Francisco Residential Market Trends
Realtor District 5: Noe Valley/ Castro/ Cole Valley
A market overview for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights,
Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights,
Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle
Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco’s central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. Changes in general statistics do not constitute exact measures of changes in values: what’s important are the trends.
District 5 real estate soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the market meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly, stabilized in 2009 and 2010 and finally started to turn around in 2011. In 2012, the competition between buyers became ferocious for a very low inventory of homes for sale, with many listings selling very quickly in multiple-offer bidding situations. This is still the case as 2013 begins. Due to this dynamic, values here have been rapidly climbing.
Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 1500
transactions totaling $1.7 billion in sales in District 5, making us 1 of the top 2 brokers in
these neighborhoods we know and love so well.
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Statistics can be affected by many factors besides changes in value, including seasonality, inventory supply, buyer trends, a few very large sales, the quality of the data reported, financing conditions and distressed sales.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.
Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers
What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2012
Of all the homes purchased in San Francisco in 2012:
• How many had Golden Gate Bridge views? Or ocean views?
• How many were Victorian, Edwardian or Art Deco?
• How many had solar heating, elevators, pools or doorpersons?
• How many were bank sales, probate sales or short sales?
• What neighborhoods had the most sales over $5,000,000?
For our annual special report, we data-mined all of 2012′s MLS sales.
We hope you find the results as interesting as we did.
For updated information on home values and market conditions,
use our link to “Market Dynamics Charts” at the bottom of this newsletter.
January 2013
Overall median and average prices only give so much insight into the mix of homes sold in a particular area of the city, so these charts delineate the actual quantity of sales in specific price ranges within Realtor districts and neighborhoods around San Francisco. If you’re looking to buy, it will give you a better idea of the number of purchase options within your price range in the areas you’re considering. If you looking to sell, you’ll understand better where your home and its asking price would fall within the general curve of values in your neighborhood.
Please note that within a single Realtor district are often located multiple neighborhoods of widely different home values.
Happy New Year everyone! As promised, here is a link to Paragon’s comprehensive analysis of trends in the San Francisco residential market and beyond in 2012. You’ll find 19 incredible charts and maps covering a host of metrics and I highly recommend a quick scan of the online newsletter to find the stuff that might interest you. I’m going to cherry-pick just a handful of my favorites to discuss below.
San Francisco Rankings, Real Estate Prices & Trends, and the Biggest Home Sales of 2012
January 2013 Paragon Market Report
Here is a look at how a diverse group of major and minor organizations have recently ranked San Francisco on a wide variety of important and whimsical measures. Where disagreements existed — 3 different surveys ranked SF as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd “Greenest City” in America, and 2 surveys ranked us as second and third smartest city in the country — we naturally chose the highest grade as most accurate.
The ranking report is followed by some fascinating snapshots of the San Francisco and Bay Area real estate markets.
Median Home Sales Prices around the Bay Area
This mapped analysis calculates median prices from both distressed and non-distressed property sales around the Bay Area as reported to MLS. Median price is a very general statistic and many cities include districts of wildly varying value. For example, San Francisco contains neighborhoods whose median prices vary by over $4,000,000: The overall statistic mixes them all up together and comes up with $810,000. Maps with SF neighborhood values are included later in this report.
The 2012 Rebound
Exactly a year ago, we suggested that, based upon the changing market and economic dynamics we perceived developing in 2011, the SF real estate market was on the cusp of a major turnaround in 2012, possibly similar to what occurred in 1996 when the market blasted off after years of doldrums. And that is what happened, not only for the city, which led the way early in the year, but for the Bay Area, state and country somewhat later. Note that the SF house median price quoted here for 2012 is for 4th quarter non-distressed sales only.
San Francisco Neighborhood Values
This map charts median sales prices and average dollar per square foot for houses by city neighborhood. And this link goes to a map for SF condo values:
SF Condo Values Map
Year over Year Changes in Values
Very generally speaking, and depending on neighborhood and property type, SF home values have risen by 10% to 20% over the past year. Here is a chart assessing the surprisingly consistent change in overall SF condo value statistics and this link looks at SF house statistics.
SF House Value Statistics
SF Homes Sales by Price Range
One client once called this the “high-heel shoe” graph of San Francisco home prices. One of the big components of the 2012 market was the resurgence in luxury home sales, the chart for which can be found using this link:
SF Luxury Home Sales
Sales by Property Type
Gradually, with the addition of the big new developments in the SoMa-South Beach district (and other areas of the city), condos have become the largest single category of property type sales in the city. This trend will only accelerate with the new burst in construction plans. And this link leads to a chart showing the resurgence in unit sales. Unit sales would have been much higher in 2012 if inventory had not been so drastically low:
Unit Sales Trends
Distressed Sales: Goodbye to All That
Distressed home sales have been a market aberration caused by the collapse in loan underwriting standards and the refinancing frenzy of the bubble years. Fair market value is defined as “the price a willing, able and reasonably knowledgeable buyer would pay to a seller not under distress.” But bank and short sales radiate distress: underwater sellers, overwhelmed and unresponsive banks; often the physical condition of the homes themselves is distressed. Buyers demanded a huge discount to deal with them. In SF, this market segment was largely confined to the lower price ranges and less affluent neighborhoods. Now, with the market recovery, the city’s distressed home market is rapidly dwindling and should soon disappear altogether.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
This one statistic provides the context to everything we’ve seen in the market this past year: ferocious, pent-up, buyer demand met a drastically inadequate inventory of homes for sale, leading to much more competition for listings and strong upward pressure on prices.
Median SF home prices vary on some of the charts above, depending on whether the price specified is for both distressed and non-distressed properties together, only non-distressed homes, for the last 4 months of 2012 or for the last quarter of the year, or whether price limits were placed on the analysis (limiting sales to under a certain sales price). This is natural: the statistics will change depending on the parameters of the analysis, and it’s always useful to look at the market from slightly different angles.
Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations: How they apply to any specific property is unknown. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
© Paragon Real Estate Group, January 2013