Category: Single Family Homes

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Newsletter: Is the SF Market Easing a Little?

Is the Ferocious SF Market Easing a Little?

October 2012 San Francisco Market Update

September brought a burst of new inventory that helped satisfy some of the fierce buyer demand for San Francisco homes. Anecdotally, word on the street is that the market may have calmed down a little after Labor Day: not every listing is selling immediately amid high numbers of competing offers — though this may simply reflect the temporary increase in new listings, or sellers too hopeful in their asking prices. But it also appears that home price appreciation has been stabilizing or at least slowing in the last quarter after the big jump earlier in the year. It’s still too early for conclusions: Since most statistics are like looking in a rearview mirror, what is happening today will only become clear in coming months.

Even if the market has eased a little, it is still very strong and very competitive by any historical measure.

Below are 2 updated, mapped analyses of median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. Almost all the current values reflect a significant jump from 2011: for the city overall, the increase has been in the 10 to 12% range, but it can vary from 4% to 18% by neighborhood and property type.

Median Sales Prices

After the big jump early in the year, median price appreciation for both house and condos appear to have stabilized or slowed – at least for the city as a whole. (Market conditions vary widely by neighborhood.) The median sales price for non-distressed SF condos now slightly exceeds the median price in 2007, the last peak of the market, while that of SF houses is only 5% below 2007. We have similar charts going back 15 to 30 years available on our website.

Inventory

September had the highest number of new listings of any month in the past year, though well below previous Septembers: 760 new home listings in September 2012 vs. 888 in 2011 and 1138 in 2010. This significantly, if temporarily, expanded the choice of homes available to buyers. But now, in October, the number of new listings is dwindling again and inventory is still drastically low by any historical measure. Overall, in the third quarter, there were 1100 fewer listings than in the same period last year, but the number of sales increased by 21%.

2-Bedroom Condo Median Prices

In the 5 areas shown, condo values jumped across the board, though the most dramatic increase from the bottom of the market has been in South Beach/Yerba Buena — where in the last 2 quarters, the median price surged ahead of that for Pacific and Presidio Heights. Noe and Eureka Valleys and surrounding neighborhoods, SoMa and Hayes Valley/NoPa have also seen large increases. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Average Dollar per Square Foot House Values

Though pretty much all SF neighborhoods are seeing increases in dollar per square foot values for houses, the more affluent districts 5 (Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys) and 7 (Pacific Heights-Marina) have seen some of the largest jumps. In the last 2 quarters, District 5 hit a point matching the peak of the market in 2007. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Luxury Home Sales

Comparing the 3rd Quarter 2012 with 3rd Quarter 2011, MLS listings of San Francisco homes of $1,500,000 and above increased by 23% and sales soared by 54%. This map shows where those sales occurred: 18 in the Sea Cliff/ Lake Street/ Richmond district; 26 in the Pacific Heights/ Marina district; 21 in Russian/ Nob/ Telegraph Hills; 19 in the greater SoMa/South Beach area; 53 in the Noe/ Eureka/ Cole Valleys district; 10 in the St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill district; 2 in Potrero Hill and 3 in Bernal Heights. The highest prices are still generally achieved in the band of very affluent neighborhoods running across the northern boundary of the city, though growth in the number of luxury home sales is strongest in the central and northeastern areas.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

Still bumping along at the lowest levels in memory. MSI reflects the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the existing rate of sales. Lower MSI means higher demand as compared to supply.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

Houses, condos and TICs all hit historic highs in the 54% to 60% range earlier in the year, but have now fallen back a bit. In the third quarter, TICs saw a rather large decrease, but their percentage is still much higher than in the last four calendar years. The percentages for houses and condos are still extraordinarily high. This statistic is one of the clearest measures of supply and demand.

Average Days on Market

For those listings that did accept offers in September, the average days on market was the lowest in a long while. Many new listings, especially those considered most appealing and well-priced, are accepting offers within 7 to 10 days of coming on market.

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Summer’s Unflagging Demand Fuels Higher SF Home Prices

San Francisco Real Estate Market: September 2012 Update

Typically, the real estate market slows down during the summer months – a period often called the summer doldrums — but that certainly did not occur this year in San Francisco: unflagging buyer demand continued through August. The market recovery that began in some SF neighborhoods late last year has now spread throughout the city. Bay Area, state and national home markets are also showing clear, if still early signs of turnaround.
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San Francisco House Values Rising

It’s rare that the 3 main statistical measurements of home value line up so perfectly, but comparing this summer’s house sales to last summer’s shows 12% increases across the board. Which doesn’t mean uniform appreciation for SF homes: changes in value vary by property and neighborhood. This analysis and the one following are for non-distressed sales in the city’s 8 northern and central districts, which generally run north of the Sloat Blvd/ Highway 280 line: The 2 southern districts were hit much harder by foreclosures and though they too are recovering quickly, mixing in their data distorts the results. During this 3-month period, house sales volume in the 8 districts was up 5% in units and 18% in dollar volume — and would be up much higher if more inventory had been available. Average days on market fell from 52 days to 39 days year over year.

San Francisco Condo Values Rising

The condo statistics don’t line up quite as neatly, but nearly so: they’re up from 9.4% to almost 12.5%, with the average being about 11%, which is very close to the 12% increase seen in houses. (Remember: these statistics are generalities regarding the sale of many hundreds of relatively unique homes.) Closed sales follow the time when new listings hit the market and offers are negotiated by 4 to 10 weeks, so these charts reflect the market from April through July. Non-distressed condo sales volume in the 8 northern/central city districts during this 3-month period is up 41% in units and 54% in dollar volume from last summer, and average days on market dropped from 69 days to 47 days.

Most Listings Selling At or Over Asking Price

San Francisco is currently seeing remarkable percentages of homes selling above and sometimes far above the asking price: 64% of house sales and 45% of condo sales in August closed at above list price, and solid percentages sold at 10% higher or more. This is perhaps as good a snapshot as any of the ferocious heat of buyer demand right now. (Sales that were within a quarter percent of 100% were considered “At List Price.”)

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

No summer slowdown is showing up in this important metric of supply and demand.

Price Reductions, Sales Price Percentages, Time on Market

Over two thirds of SF listings are selling quickly at an average of almost 4% over the asking price. Those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell (over 2 1?2 months longer on average) to close at a significant discount to original price. For every listing selling after a price reduction, another listing expires or is withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The keys to getting the best price for your home: price it right to begin with; prepare it to show at its absolute best; comprehensively market it to buyers and agents; negotiate offers aggressively. And it doesn’t hurt to take advantage of a low inventory/high demand market.

Distressed House Sales Declining

Distressed house sales – bank-owned and short sales – are clustered in the city’s two southern districts, running from Bayview to Oceanview. However, these listings are rapidly declining as the market turns around and values increase: distressed house sales have dropped from 20% of sales in 2011 to 12% in August 2012. This becomes a virtuous circle of market recovery: higher values mean fewer distressed listings; fewer distressed listings lessen their (significant) negative effect on neighborhood home values.

Distressed Condo Sales Sinking

The distressed condo segment of the SF market is dwindling rapidly both as a percentage of total sales (from 20% in 2011 to 14% YTD, and 10% in August 2012), and even more dramatically, as a percentage of listings for sale (down to only 4% as of August 31). The greatest number of distressed condo sales has been in the greater SoMa/ South Beach area, where so many of the new, big developments were built over the past 10-15 years, but the impact of these sales is shrinking very quickly everywhere in the city.

Unit Sales Up

Condo and 2-4 unit building unit sales are up over 20% from last year this time – this time comparing a six-month period of each year. House sales — and indeed sales of all types — would certainly be up by a much greater percentage if there were simply more listings for buyers to purchase.

Inventory Way Down

There’s no ambiguity in this chart: An inadequate number of new listings and extremely high demand have kept the inventory of listings available to choose from on any given day lower than at any time in recent memory. It’s not unusual for September to bring a large burst of new listings to fuel the autumn sales season: in this chart, you can see the big jump in September 2010 and the smaller surge in September 2011. Buyers and their agents are certainly praying for a surge in inventory to alleviate the intense competition for available homes.

Days on Market Continue to Decline

The trend is clear: listings are selling much more quickly. Though 37 days as an average is very, very low — nationally, there’s excitement that the figure just fell to 69 days — many new listings in the city are accepting offers within 7-10 days of coming on market.

Values by Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count

We just completed our detailed semi-annual survey of SF home values. This is one of seven charts: the complete report can be found by clicking on the Market Dynamics Charts link in the footer below and then selecting Neighborhood Values from the sections listed on the upper left of the webpage.

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What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco

San Francisco Home Values
By Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count

MLS Sales February 1, 2012 – mid-August 2012

The charts below apply to non-distressed home sales with at least 1 car parking. Distressed home sales — bank-owned property and short sales — typically sell at a discount, but as the market recovers the number of such listings is rapidly declining.

If a price is followed by a “k” it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions; “N/A” means that there was not enough data to generate a reliable statistic. Where abnormal “outlier” sales were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted from the calculations. Within each chart, the neighborhoods are sorted by median sales price, highest to lowest.

Very generally speaking and varying widely by city neighborhood, thus far in 2012, San Francisco home prices have increased by 5% to 15% over 2011 values.

Trends in Dollar per Square Foot Values for Non-Distressed Houses
in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales Only


Trends in Median Sales Prices for Non-Distressed 2-Bedroom Condos
in Selected SF Neighborhoods

2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales Only

The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value.

AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC’s will be higher than a multi-unit building’s (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views.

The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities.

Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940′s Sunset house with “bedrooms” and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown.

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San Francisco Market is Stuck

July 2012 Market Update

If you wish, you may jump straight to the market charts.

The SF real estate market is stuck. Stuck in high gear: huge buyer demand + the lowest interest rates in history + extremely low inventory of listings = (often ferocious) competitive bidding and increasing prices. Though this trend began in the city’s more affluent areas, it has now spread to virtually every neighborhood, property type and price segment. Since closed sales activity follows the time of offer acceptance by 4 to 8 weeks, the appreciation in home values has not yet shown up in the statistics for certain neighborhoods. We believe it will soon.

Though this situation is to the advantage of sellers (after years of market doldrums), homebuyers might take some consolation in the fact that the last time the market dramatically shifted after a similar downturn, in 1996 after the early nineties recession, there was a market frenzy much like ours today. However, people who bought at that time still ended up doing very well by getting in at the beginning of a market rebound that went on for many years, even before the housing-bubble years began. And interest rates then were close to double today’s.

When reviewing the map analyses below, remember that median and average statistics are generalities, and how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Percentage changes should be taken with a grain of salt: some neighborhoods have relatively small numbers of sales, which make statistics less reliable; in other areas, it may simply be that the size/quality mix of homes sold shifted from one period to the other — this happens. Still, overall, it is clear that the city is experiencing a general surge in home values.

Explanations for the statistics referenced can be found on the Paragon website: Statistical Definitions

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SF Median House Prices and Appreciation

Many of the city’s neighborhoods are showing significant increases in the house median sales price, and this appears to be accelerating as we get deeper into the year. Those areas not yet showing significant change are expected to show increases in the next quarter’s statistics.


Median Condo Prices and Appreciation
Many neighborhoods are showing significant increases in the condo median sales price, and this appears to be accelerating. (However, as an example of how statistics are not 100% reliable, the chart shows no appreciation for Pacific and Presidio Heights condos over the past year: we believe there was indeed significant appreciation on par with most other nearby affluent areas, but the statistic is reflecting other factors, such as different inventories for sale during the two periods being compared.)


Average Dollar per Square Foot
Average dollar per square foot has been increasing in 2012, and this appears to be accelerating.


San Francisco Dollar Volume Sales
Two factors affect dollar volume: the number of sales and the average sales price. In 2012 both of these statistics have been jumping in the city.


SF Unit Home Sales
The number of sales reported to MLS has jumped to its highest number in over 4 years. However, there are two additional factors: new-development condo sales which are often not reported to MLS are lower than in many previous years due to the crash in building after 2008 (though this is turning around too). On the other hand, it appears that the number of “off-market” sales, not listed in or reported to MLS, has surged in 2012.


Home Sales by Property Type
Houses and condos make up the great majority of sales in San Francisco, though TIC sales seem to be making a big recovery in the low-inventory situation the city has found itself in.


Home Sales by Price Range
As the market has heated up, prices have risen and distressed home listings have plunged. This is causing something of a shift upward in the percentage of sales in the higher price segments.


Average Sales Price: Short Term Trend
Average sales price and median sales price are different statistics, but they’re both showing the same trend in San Francisco.


Price Reductions, Sales Price to List Price Percentage & Days on Market
Houses selling without a price reduction are growing as a percentage of sales. They are averaging well over the asking price and selling in the shortest time period in years.


SF Luxury Home Sales
Homes selling for over $1,500,000 hit their highest level in years in the second quarter of 2012.


2-Bedroom Condo Prices: Long-Term Trends
These neighborhoods have all been showing significant price appreciation since the home-price crash in 2008-2009. If this chart went back to 1995, it would show that median prices pretty much doubled between 1995 and 2000.


Expired and Withdrawn Listings
As the market gets hotter, fewer listings expire without selling. Right now,the percentage of expired and withdrawn listings is incredibly low.


Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
The stronger the buyer demand and the lower the inventory, the higher the percentage of listings accepting offers. Every San Francisco property type is at its highest percentage in many years, and perhaps its highest ever.

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San Francisco Housing and Rental Markets: Choose a Rock or a Hard Place

The San Francisco Association of Realtors, of which I am a member, just came out with its Market_Focus_Report for May_2012 (click to open).  If you’re a seller or landlord, the news is great:  home prices and rents are up, up, up.  Not so good if you’re on the other side of the deal. Continue reading “San Francisco Housing and Rental Markets: Choose a Rock or a Hard Place”

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Home-Spotting: Second Time Around, 285 Douglass sells for $250,000 over asking

Explain this one to me please.   Elegant if dowdy Victorian lists for $2.349 million in September 2010 and sits there for three months with no takers.  Relists in April at $2.3 million and in contract seven days later at $250,000 over asking price. Calls to the no-doubt-jubilant listing agent for some clarification were not returned, but the only thing I can think of to explain it is a brief and bloody bidding war.

[Ed. Update:  4/14/11: Thanks to John Farnham, the listing agent, for getting back to me.  There was indeed a bidding war.  Won by the guy with the all-cash offer and a promise to close in 7 days. And the extra $250,000 in cash.]

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Noe Valley Back Smartly in 2010

 

 

Author: Jack French -- Used under Creative Commons Permission 2.0

After nearly two years of sharp declines, Noe Valley single family home prices recovered smartly in 2010.  Not enough, however, for anyone to claim that Noe Valley is somehow immune from market forces affecting the rest of San Francisco.  As of December 2010, Noe Valley home prices were still down 20% from their all-time highs, almost exactly the same as prices for homes city-wide.

Here’s the chart (double click): Continue reading “Noe Valley Back Smartly in 2010”

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What’s A Better Value in San Francisco, A Condo or a Home? (Part 2)

In my last post, I included a chart that showed both single family homes and condos stuck in relatively narrow price ranges over the last 18 months or so.  At the end of 2010 the median price of a single family home ($744,000) was about $80,000 more than that for a condo/TIC.

But that doesn’t tell us anything about “value.”  Now, let me count the ways we could argue about what “value” means, but I think we’d agree that how each property type has weathered the market battering over the last few years has to be relevant.   Take a look at this table: Continue reading “What’s A Better Value in San Francisco, A Condo or a Home? (Part 2)”