Here We Go Again?: Signs Point to Another Feverish Spring Market

Spring-shoots-dollars

It’s easy to sympathize with potential buyers who are sitting the market out in the hope that … “sanity will prevail” …”…the market will stabilize…” “…prices have to come down sooner or later….” Alas, for buyers at least, our analysis indicates the contrary: 2015 looks like it’s getting off to a very strong start.

Below are key takeaways from our recent analysis of sales trends over the last few months, which include the seasonally quiet year-end holiday period, along with what we’ve been seeing since the start of the year. These preliminary statistics, and, even more so, reports “from the trenches,” suggest that we may well be looking at the fourth intense spring season since the market recovery began in early 2012.

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Fewer, Smaller, Costlier: San Francisco Housing Trends

HouseJudging by the number of family rooms, bedrooms and bathrooms being shoe-horned into every Victorian-era attic and basement around town, you’d think that Homo Sapiens San Francisco is living much larger than his/her cousins of a hundred years ago.

It’s true that people a hundred years ago were smaller and had a lot less “things”  than 21st Century Human.  The challenge, for those that can afford it, is to find ways to squeeze extra space out of beautiful but functionally obsolescent homes that the  SF Dept.  of Building Inspection, in its infinite wisdom, is dead set against anyone demolishing.  Ever.  Never mind whether it’s a grand Victorian Dame or a sorry mid-century stucco box with no character and rotten innards.
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Three Years into the Recovery: What’s “Up” in San Francisco?

Happy New Year

Happy New Year, one and all! What happened in San Francisco real estate in 2014? Three years into SF’s booming recovery, inventory remains at record lows and prices approach or exceed record highs across most of the city. End of story. Goodbye.

In some respects, the story really is that simple. But here at RealDataSF we know our readers want the details. So in this month’s issue, we’ll look at what’s Continue reading “Three Years into the Recovery: What’s “Up” in San Francisco?”

New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little

After the feverish spring 2014 market, home prices in the high-price tier – which applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties – flattened and then ticked down a little, while more affordable home segments continued to tick up: It’s not unusual for the market to cool off and plateau during the summer months. The October 2014 Case-Shiller Index just released (on December 30), begins to reflect the autumn selling season, which starts after Labor Day: The market typically begins to heat up again in autumn. (Note that transactions negotiated in September generally start closing in October.)

According to the newest Index, all Bay Area home price segments ticked up in October by about 1%, plus or minus depending on segment. Note that small monthly fluctuations are not particularly meaningful until substantiated over a longer term.

This chart tracks the high-tier-price market since the recovery began in 2012 using Case-Shiller data. The C-S Continue reading “New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little”

Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood

Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

The charts below are based upon transactions reported to MLS for 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Of course, the era, style, amenities and average size of homes will Continue reading “Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood”

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

Penthouses, Probates, Lofts, Mansions & Fixer-Uppers

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

How many San Francisco home sales were… Victorians, Edwardians or Art Deco? Condos in doorman buildings? Artist live-work lofts? Probate or bank sales? Without parking? Under $500,000? Over $5 million? Tenant occupied? Had Golden Gate or Bay Bridge views? What were the oldest house sale, the biggest condo sale and the median sales price for a 2-unit building?
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