Is the market flattening out after its huge appreciation surge since 2012 began, or will the autumn sales season bring another step of renewed price increases?

Right now, there are some mixed signals regarding what is occurring in the San Francisco market: spring’s big jump in values vs. the recent plateau in median sales prices; interest rates that have increased significantly, but are still extremely low by historical measures; growing signs of buyer burnout with frenzied market conditions vs. supply and demand statistics that still indicate a very strong sellers’ market; and an increasing number of expired listings, which suggests that sellers may now be pushing their asking prices too high for buyers to swallow.

Seasonality plays a significant role in median sales prices rising in spring and autumn, and declining in summer and winter – as discussed below, much of this pertains to ebbs and flows in the luxury home market and does not necessarily reflect changes in home values. With real estate statistics, the longer-term trend is what is meaningful, not short-term fluctuations up and down. Looking at the chart above, the median sales price jogs up and down for a variety of reasons, including seasonality, but stepping back, one sees the strong, ongoing appreciation since the market recovery began.

September is typically the month with the highest number of new listings hitting the market: how buyers respond will determine what the next stage of the market will look like.

The Luxury Home Market, Seasonality & Median Sales Prices
The big surge in accepted offers for higher-price homes occurs in April/May and September/ October, when these sales make up about 14% of total home sales. The big slump in luxury home sales occurs in the summer months and in December/January, when their percentage of total sales declines to about 10%: more so that the general market, the luxury segment checks out during the summer and winter holidays. This significant decline in the ratio of high-price sales to total sales is one factor that reduces overall median home sales prices during the summer and winter holiday months.

Inventory of Homes for Sale
This chart tracks the overall decline in inventory available on any given day since the market recovery began. However, despite the huge decline in listings for sale on any day, the number of MLS home sales in 2013 YTD is actually a tad higher than the same period of 2012, and 16% higher than in 2011. Because a much higher percentage of listings are selling, and selling much more quickly than before. If sellers start re-entering the market in larger numbers, the quantity of sales should jump sharply higher as well – and may stabilize home price appreciation.

New Listings Coming on Market
September is typically the single month of the year when the largest number of new listings comes on market. This chart illustrates the ebb and flow of new inventory by season. We shall see if this September brings the big surge in new home listings that buyers are hoping for.

This link’s chart tracks Months Supply of Inventory: It continues to indicate a market defined by very high demand when compared to the supply of inventory available to buy:
Months Supply of Inventory

Expired and Withdrawn Listings
The main reason for expired and withdrawn listings is that buyers ignored them as overpriced. The fact that the number of these listings has been climbing dramatically of late means that sellers are either pushing the envelope on prices or buyers are pushing back at the price points recently achieved during the height of the market frenzy – or both.

August Snapshot
This chart indicates some of the mixed signals we’re seeing: on one hand, 87% of sales sold quickly without price reductions at an average sales price 8% over list price (i.e. an extremely hot market). On the other hand, the number of listings expiring or being withdrawn is climbing and so is the number of listings that has been on the market for 2 months or longer without accepting offers. Note the large difference between average days on market between homes that sell without price reductions (31 days) and homes that must be reduced before they sell (88 days): pricing, preparing and marketing properly is vital in any market.

Mortgage Interest Rates
Rates have been more or less stable since their big percentage jump in June. The increase in loan rates from their low point in 2013 is large as a percentage increase, but still leaves current rates very low from a historical perspective. The consensus of pundits seems to be that rates will be going significantly higher when and as the Fed begins tapering their huge bond-purchase program, but predicting interest rate changes is a tough game.

A companion to our recent overview on San Francisco Victorian and Edwardian architecture (Early SF Architecture): the text, chart and photos used herein are all courtesy and permission of the San Francisco architect James Dixon: James Dixon Website. We are most grateful for his generosity in allowing us to use them.

Art Deco: 1920 – 1940
Art Deco takes its name from the International Exposition of Modern Decorative and Industrial Arts held in Paris in 1925. This new style rejected aristocracy for democracy, frugality for luxury, and European architectural references for futuristic geometric ornament. It is a decorative style of applied ornamentation, and its features include geometric ornament of zigzags, chevrons, sunbursts, and florals; and use of exotic architectural references, such as of Mayan temples and ancient Egypt.
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International Style: 1925 – Present
Mies van der Rohe’s maxim “Less is more” appropriately expresses this lean and functional style. Mies was one of three gifted architects who learned functional design from the industrial architect Peter Behrens; the other two were Le Corbusier and Walter Gropius. In 1923 Corbusier published “Towards an Architecture”. It set modern engineering and unadorned honesty, pure function and pure form, as the only true standards of architecture. Corbusier’s most famous dictum, “A house is a machine for living” still influences architects today. Characteristics include no ornamentation, windows flush with walls, no trim on doors or windows, functionally efficient open floor plan and flat roof.
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Streamline Moderne: 1930 – 1950
Art Deco was a transport to another time-an exuberant fantasy future or an exotic past-while Streamline Moderne was a transport to another place. It was a romance of efficient travel by ocean liner, airplane, train and car. This new science of aerodynamics rounded edges, assisted air flow around corners with horizontal grooves, and smoothed surfaces so they were unencumbered and sleek. Buildings became romantic ships and airplanes to and from another place. Characteristics include curved corners; the use of glass block; corner and porthole windows; and other elements of nautical or aerodynamic flair.
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Bay Area Modernism, Second Style: 1930 – 1960
Bay Area Modernism influenced more homes throughout America than all other architectural styles combined, as seen in the vast tracts of post-World War II suburban ranch houses. Architect William Wurster combined a love of California landscapes and its rural buildings (wood-sheathed farmhouses, barns and sheds) with the elemental quality of minimalist Japanese architecture. The goal was inexpensive homes that allowed the outside in and were easily built of local, natural materials.
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Bay Area Modernism, Third Style: 1950 – 1980
As the Second Bay Area Style matured, architects tired of its plainness and flirted with playful pop culture and Postmodernism. They started the Third Bay Area Style and influenced acres of tract homes throughout the United States.
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Eichler Homes: 1950 – 1970
Joseph Eichler was a visionary developer who built over 11,000 homes in California. All his homes would display Frank Lloyd Wright’s core ideas: “breaking the box”, “bringing the outside in”, floor to ceiling glass, simple natural materials kept exposed, and the open floor plan. These ideas made Eichler homes airy and modern.
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Post-Modernism, 1960 – 2000
To Mies van der Rohe’s modernist maxim “less is more” architect Robert Venturi famously riposted “Less is a bore.” Venturi’s 1966 book “Complexity and Contradiction in Architecture” rejected International Style modernism and, at its best, freed architects to borrow freely across architectural styles. At its worst it allowed fake historical ornament pasted to boring boxes and intentionally jarring juxtapositions of different architectural styles.
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New Modernism, 1980 – Present
These buildings use modern materials, technology and computer modeling, yet strive to be humane – a radical concept in modern architecture that up to this point had revered machines, not humanity, and had rejected nature, not embraced it. Humane Modernism’s aesthetic is contemporary, but it is warm, tactile, colorful and durable. It uses the best traditional building methods to increase the everyday quality of life of the inhabitant-such as local sustainable materials beautifully detailed and exposed to view, as well as the common incorporation of “green building” features.
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SF Modern Architecture Timeline
Here is a nifty timeline of San Francisco’s variety of modern architectural styles.

This link goes to architect James Dixon’s complete overview, which was the basis for this article. It features short videos on each of the architectural styles mentioned above. Also included is a link to his overview of Victorian and Edwardian styles of San Francisco architecture:

James Dixon on San Francisco Architecture 1920 to Present

James Dixon on San Francisco Victorian and Edwardian Architecture

And for those who find San Francisco history as interesting as we do, here are two other websites we’ve discovered filled with fascinating stories and photographs:

FoundSF: History, Stories & Images

OldSF: San Francisco Photos, 1850 – 2000