This is for the high-price-tier index for the 5 county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area (MSA). The home values of the city of San Francisco itself (not reflected on the two charts below) went up more in run up to the financial markets crash of 2008, then declined less with the crash and now is recovering more quickly in 2012, than the entire 5 county MSA market.
Real Data: December Newsletter
San Francisco Smorgasbord: A Neighborhoods Sampler
Some time soon, we’ll be doing our annual wrap-up of the SF housing market statistics. And I expect it will be a doozie. But for our November Newsletter, our Chief Analyst Guru Extraordinaire did a survey of various neighborhood values. You can find all the ones he covered here. I thought I’d cover just a few of the highlights.
Inner and Central Richmond. These neighborhoods have recovered smartly since the market crash in 2008. They are now almost back to their pre-crash peaks.
There are some gracious homes in these areas, and at $575 per square foot they represent good value, in my opinion, compared to some of the tonier neighborhoods. This assumes, of course, that you can live with the fog. Compared to 2011, prices have increased 13 to 14 percent.
(Note, we’re using home values from September through November 2012 rather than year to date values in all these charts. We feel this reflects current conditions more accurately, since values were substantially lower at the beginning of 2012.)
Luxury Northern Neighborhoods. Go pretty much anywhere north of California Street and you will find yourself in the stratosphere. Whether it’s Sea Cliff, the Heights (Presidio and Pacific) or the Hills (Telegraph and Russian), this band of presitige neighborhoods has come back with a vengeance this year, with values now up 18 to 20% over the market bottom in 2010. Absolute prices (as opposed to per square foot) are now at new all-time highs.
South Beach Condos. Head south-east to high-rise condo central and the story is pretty much the same, with prices up 15 to 18 percent off their lows. South Beach and Yerba Buena high-rises boast some of the most spectacular views in the city — and you’ll pay for them.
Noe Valley and Surrounds. Back towards San Francisco’s geographic heart, Noe Valley has seen an exceptional turnaround in prices, with homes now selling for more than they did prior to the crash in 2007/2008. The average sales price of a home may be $1.66 million, but expect to pay well over $2 million for one with bells and whistles.
Bernal Heights. A perennial “up and comer,” this eclectic neighborhood kitty-corner from Noe Valley actually saw prices fall slower than more expensive parts of the city. They didn’t reach bottom until 2011. Now, they’ve come roaring back, with prices up 19% and very close to their previous 2007 peak.
A Winter Cooling Trend? Prices and sales volume typically fall during the winter months, especially at the higher end of the market as those who can afford to take off on vacation do so. It’s actually not a bad time to be out looking to buy for that very reason — less competition. This year, however, available inventory is so low that we are predicting a relatively busy winter season.
For charts and tables on even more neighborhoods, read the complete newsletter here.
Updated San Francisco Market Charts
Sales Price to List Price Percentage & Days on Market
In November, the vast majority of San Francisco homes that sold, sold very quickly without any price reduction, at an average sales price 4% above the list price: That is a strong, hot market. Properties that had to go through price reductions took over 2 months longer to accept offers and sold at a significant discount to original list price. And even in a hot market, there are listings that do not sell at all, but expire or are withdrawn from the market: Many of these will ultimately be relisted at lower prices and eventually sold.
Average Sales Price
The average price is simply the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Like median price, it is a general statistic affected by a variety of factors and often fluctuates without great significance on a monthly basis. Among other factors, a decline in distressed home sales and/or an increase in high-end home sales, both of which are occurring now in SF, can have an outsized effect on average sales price. October saw a big jump in average sales price, and then it went up again in November. If the market acts in its typical manner, it will now fall in December and January, since the more affluent home market tends to withdraw for the holidays. (We limit this analysis to sales of up to $3m because the 5% of home sales above that – going up to $12m – $20m – severely distort the overall average by hundreds of thousands of dollars.)
Median Sales Price
The median home sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic and what’s important is the trend over the longer term — monthly fluctuations are normal. Still, October-November saw a large increase over the relatively static median prices seen in the previous 6 months, which followed the big jump in early 2012. Usually, median prices will fall in December and January as the higher end market checks out for the holidays. Remember that sales prices reflect accepted offer activity in the 4 to 10 weeks prior. (The small decline from October to November is probably not statistically significant – unless substantiated as a longer term trend.)
Months Supply of Inventory: Very Low
MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the current supply of listings at the existing rate of sales. In October and November, it was about as low as it has ever been. This would typically be interpreted as a strong “seller’s market.”
New Listings & the Inventory of Listings for Sale
After the inventory spike in September from the large influx of new listings, in October and November the number of new listings (the first chart below) and the total number of homes for sale (second chart below) are markedly declining and will almost certainly continue to do so until early 2013.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Buyer Demand)
The statistic used on this chart boils down the supply and demand dynamics into a single statistic. The percentage of listings accepting offers in October and November was probably about as high as it has ever been, far above the level of previous years. The decline seen in September was the result of a large influx of new listings hitting the market in mid-month – these were snapped up at the same fast rate, but many didn’t accept offers until October, after a reasonable marketing and showing period.
December Newsletter: SF Neighborhood Values
San Francisco Neighborhood Values
December 2012
The general market dynamics in November were little changed from October, so for a different perspective, below are long-term trends in average sales prices and average dollar-per-square-foot values in a variety of areas around the city. The last sales period assessed on the charts is made up of the three months September through November; the neighborhoods chosen were picked for their high volume of sales for the property type being tracked — generally speaking, the greater the volume of sales, the more reliable the statistics.
Pretty much all areas of San Francisco are now showing the same general trend line, a distinct and substantial recovery in values, though some neighborhoods began their recovery earlier in the year and have seen greater increases year to date.
If you’d like to review the overall real estate market dynamics of San Francisco — months supply of inventory, days on market, the number of new listings coming on market, percentage of listings accepting offers, and so on — these can be found online here: SF December Market Report
Inner & Central Richmond House Values
House sales here over the past three months had an average sales price of $1,186,000 at an average of $575 per square foot. Compared to 2011, those figures reflect a 13% to 14% increase.
Central & Outer Sunset & Parkside
This table shows the changes in average sales price and dollar per square foot since 1995. One can also see that the average size of the houses sold can fluctuate (which will affect the average sales price). Distressed home sales are in rapid decline here, as they are throughout the city. The average dollar per square foot is up about 9% since 2011.
Chart
Bernal Heights House Values
With an average sales price of $896,000 and a distressed home market that has basically disappeared, the Bernal Heights averages are up about 19% from the bottom of the market in 2011. And getting very close to the previous peak in values in 2007.
Numbers Table
Noe & Eureka Valley House Values
Average house sales price in this extremely hot market area was $1,665,000 in the past 3 months, which is actually higher than previous peak values in 2008. However, we’ll have to wait to see what occurs over the longer trend since seasonality is one of the factors in prices. Average dollar per square foot is still somewhat below the 2008 peak.
Chart
Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys: Condo Values
Condo values in these highly sought after Upper-Market neighborhoods have followed a similar trajectory. The average condo sales price here over the past 3 months was $1,000,000.
Numbers Table
Prestige Northern Neighborhoods
The most expensive area for houses in San Francisco is in the northern band of old-prestige neighborhoods running from Telegraph Hill in the east to Sea Cliff in the west. As the luxury market has rebounded in a big way in 2012, we’ve seen increases in value in the 18% to 20% range since the market bottom in 2010.
South Beach – Yerba Buena Condo Values
The greater South Beach area has seen a rebound in condo values in the 15% to 20% range. This area has some of the most expensive condos in the city, many featuring spectacular views.
Numbers Table
Pacific Heights-Marina Condo Values
At $1,235,000, the average condo sales price in the neighborhoods of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina is now back up to the previous peak-value level of 2008. While the condos in South Beach have all been built in the last 15 years or so, condos in these older prestige neighborhoods are in buildings typically built 70 – 100 years ago.
Portola & Mission Terrace House Values
The southern-most neighborhoods of San Francisco were those hit hardest by the distressed sale crisis. But the distressed property market is rapidly dwindling here and prices have been rebounding dramatically in the past 6 months. The recovery here started a step behind the recoveries in the most affluent neighborhoods, but is now accelerating rapidly.
September Case-Shiller Index Released
For the high-tier price index, there was virtually no change from August to September, though the lower price tiers continued to increase (these tiers are especially affected by the decline in distressed home sales). Here are 2 updated charts if you’d like to use one or more of them, one long-term, one short-term.
Real Data SF November Newsletter
Welcome to the very first edition of Real Data SF, a monthly newsletter about the San Francisco real estate market.
If real data, with lots of charts and analysis is your cup of tea, then please read on. Because that’s what I’ll be doing here. In addition, there’ll be the occasional recipe, restaurant review, and heads-up on fun stuff to do in SF. Comments, feedback, suggestions, always welcome of course. Now let’s crunch some numbers!
San Francisco’s Housing Market Kicks in the After-Burners
Many people who don’t necessarily follow real estate that closely aren’t aware that SF’s residential market has been on fire since the start of 2012. Take a look at this chart:
Starting in January, demand – followed by prices – took off. After a steep climb through April, prices took a breather through the summer – only to take off again in autumn.
What’s more, because this chart includes both distressed and non-distressed sales across all neighborhoods in SF – from Seacliff mansions to Bayview bungalows– it doesn’t reflect the extent to which the middle and upper end of the housing market has recovered. If you look at non-distressed sales above $1.5 million – and that’s hardly a luxury home in SF any more – prices on a per square foot basis are within striking distance of their 2008 all-time highs, fueled by an enormous rally in the third quarter.
Will this continue? Though activity typically slows down during the winter and holiday months, we’re not sure it’s going to happen this year. Why? High demand and very low inventory.
For more charts, including one that shows our bubble-pop-recovery cycle all the way back to 1982, click here.
Only sales reported to MLS are included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. (c) Paragon Real Estate Group
2012 San Francisco Holiday Events
SF Luxury Home Report
The San Francisco Luxury Home Market
A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group
The luxury home market in San Francisco – typically defined as houses, condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more – experienced a big surge in activity in the second quarter of 2012. The third quarter saw a decline typical for the summer months, but was still 50% higher than the third quarter of last year. With the increased demand has come a significant increase in values throughout the city.
The SF luxury home segment is currently made up of three dynamics: 1) general-appeal (often spectacular), well-priced listings that buyers are jumping all over and often bidding up far over the asking price, 2) listings that the market has deemed considerably overpriced – by hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars – that the market is generally ignoring, and 3) niche or special-circumstance properties for which there is an extremely limited buyer pool – even if priced fairly, these can take some time to sell.
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Sales Over, Under & At List Price
In the third quarter, a high percentage, 44%, of luxury home sales in San Francisco sold for above asking price; 15% sold for at least 10% over asking price – an indication of very strong demand; 42% sold below original list price; and 14% closed at list price. It should be noted that a fair number of high-end homes have sold off-market in 2012, i.e., not listed or reported to MLS, from which we derive our data.
Average Dollar per Square Foot
Luxury homes throughout the city have seen a substantial jump in dollar per square foot values since 2011. Values vary widely by neighborhood and property type, and can generally range anywhere from $500 to $2000 per square foot. The highest per square foot values are typically found in the most prestigious mansions on the north side of town and in penthouse condos in the South Beach/ Yerba Buena and Pacific Heights/ Russian Hill areas. Absolutely spectacular views are a common aspect of these sales.
Luxury Home Unit Sales
The second and third quarters of 2012 saw the highest number of luxury home sales of any quarter since 2008. The decline in the third quarter was typical for this market segment during the summer months, and was over 50% higher than the third quarter of 2011.
Sales Price to Original List Price by Days on Market
Most of the luxury homes that sell are sold relatively quickly after the listings arrive on market, and these sales are selling for an average of 102% of list price. Those listings that go through price reductions sell at a significant discount to original price and spend almost 3 months longer on market. And even in a strong market, a solid percentage of listings don’t sell at all, almost always due to being perceived as overpriced.
Inventory of Available Listings
As is typical, September was the month with the highest number of new listings hitting the market, which often leads to an autumn surge in closed sales. It is almost certain that the number of new listings and available inventory will now continue to dwindle until the new year begins. More often than not, the luxury home market goes into a semi-hibernation from Thanksgiving to mid-January.
San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales by District and Price Range
Home sales with a price of $1,500,000 and above now take place across the city, but the sales cluster in certain areas and prices vary widely by location. These 4 charts break the luxury home market into price segments and property types by Realtor district.
SF HOUSES Selling for $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
SF HOUSES Selling for $2,000,000 to $4,999,999
SF HOUSES Selling for $5,000,000 or More
SF CONDOS, CO-OPS & TICs Selling for $1,500,000 or More
