SoMa: An evolution in progress…

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Change is afoot in San Francisco’s South of Market (SoMa) district, but then, isn’t it always? Since it was first platted in 1847, SoMa’s only constant has been change. During its long life it’s been an exclusive residential neighborhood, a district of light industry and warehouses, a convenient landing spot for transient workers, a hub of nightlife activity, a place where local artists set themselves up in inexpensive warehouse space and early tech workers powwowed in brand-new live-work spaces…

The latest change to hit SoMa came during the last decade. In 2010, the San Francisco Association of Realtors made official what had been obvious to savvy observers for years: that what we’d been calling SoMa had actually become three distinct neighborhoods, one wedged between downtown and Mission Bay called South Beach (Third Street to San Francisco Bay), one boasting a critical mass of luxury high-rise buildings called Yerba Buena (Fifth Street to Third) and funky, quirky SoMa (Fifth Street to the 101 Freeway).

SoMa’s rich history is long and unique. It spent its earliest years as a residential neighborhood – one of the city’s finest – until the introduction of reliable streetcars pushed the district’s wealthy residents to the top of Nob Hill. In their place came working-class residents, dock and shipyard workers whose presence in SoMa dominated the next several decades.

Whatever growth SoMa was undergoing 100 years ago was abruptly interrupted by the total devastation of the 1906 earthquake. The ‘quake and ensuing fire leveled the entire neighborhood. When it came time to rebuild, city leaders decided to emphasize light industry and simple housing. They widened SoMa’s main streets and lined them with multi-unit low-rise Edwardian buildings, which attracted the aforementioned transient workers. Many of these buildings remain and now stand cheek-to-jowl with converted warehouses, lofts from the 1990s and mid-rise condo buildings from the last decade.

Modern SoMa is defined by its industrial past (from the exterior, the warehouses and apartment buildings on Howard, Folsom and Harrison Streets seem unchanged from the early 20th century) and by its forward-looking present (anything you can imagine fitting into a warehouse is inside these buildings: bars, restaurants, non-profit charities, art studios, tech start-ups). Its transition from “skid row” to the present was long and controversial, beginning with Benjamin Swig’s failed “San Francisco Prosperity Plan” in 1954. Swig’s hope was to make SoMa an extension of downtown, with high-rise office and residential buildings, but it was ultimately defeated by neighborhood resistance. Eventually, redevelopment came in a more organic, piecemeal fashion. Rather than start over, the neighborhood simply continued to evolve.

As a result, despite its wide streets and commercial buildings, modern SOMA is a colorful functioning city neighborhood, with rec centers, parks, schools, grocery stores (Harvest Urban Market, at 191 8th Street, is a stellar new addition), bars and some of San Francisco’s most notable restaurants, along with decades-old mom and pop businesses and younger ones, like the combination Laundromat/café/performance space Brain Wash, which, after almost 30 years in business has become a decades-old mom and pop business.

SoMa wears its past and present simultaneously. Whether it’s the constantly changing roster of night spots radiating out from the intersection of 11th Street and Folsom, the latter street’s scattered leather emporia (evidence of its 1960s and 70s run as the center of San Francisco’s nascent gay community) or in the gleaming steel barrels of the Cellar Maker Brewing on Howard Street, SoMa keeps parts of its past alive while simultaneously forging ahead.

But what makes the neighborhood so special is that hidden just around the corner from its busy main thoroughfares are SoMa’s treasured alleyways, one-lane residential streets offering warm contrast to wide, noisy streets like Howard and Harrison. It’s here that you’ll find so many of the small, two- to 10-unit residential buildings that eventually became SoMa’s 1990s and after redevelopment. They’re pressed in among small warehouses (most of them converted into artists’ studios or live-work lofts but some still actively commercial) and Edwardian flats, creating small, quiet pockets of intimacy in the midst of arguably San Francisco’s most urban neighborhood.

One of the best of these is the block of Harriet Street between Howard and Folsom. Here you’ll see contrasting architectural styles coming together not in chaos but in complement, all overlooking the playground and park of the Gene Friend Recreation Center. This street was described in Tom Wolfe’s 1968 book,  “The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test,” as a “poor, forgotten block.” It is forgotten no more.

What comes next for SoMa? Part of the answer lies in the construction going on at its northwest corner. Here, emboldened by the success of Mission Street’s SOMA Grand building and the arrival of tech firms like Twitter, is a riot of new residential construction, four high-rise buildings hugging the Market Street border and boasting of amenities equal to those found in Yerba Buena’s standard-bearers. 37 stories at its tallest, just-opened NEMA adds 754 for lease residential units to SOMA, joining the massive Trinity Place complex one block away to emphatically declare that SoMa’s next step is directly up.

NEMA and Trinity may be the future, but there will always be room in SoMa for the quirky, the small-scale and the past. That these can live side-by-side is what makes SoMa one of San Francisco’s most vibrant and interesting neighborhoods.

Source : Parascopesf.com

Mission Bay Residential Developments

Prior to 1998, there was no residential neighborhood in Mission Bay; no Victorian farmhouses, no worker cottages ordered out of a Sears catalog in 1910, no ticky-tacky little boxes constructed en masse by Henry Doelger before World War II, no apartments, no condominiums, no townhouses. There were rail yards, warehouses and parking lots. The Mission Bay we see now was invented by Board of Supervisors decree in 1998.

It is unlike any other neighborhood in San Francisco, a fully-planned, 21st-century district featuring the latest in residential design and a growing population cutting edge commercial interests. In one important way, though, Mission Bay is the embodiment of a classic urban neighborhood: its residential makeup. Like Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Mission Bay has condos, townhouses and apartments and zero single-family homes.

Way back in 1998 Mission Bay was divided into two Redevelopment areas: “Mission Bay North” and “Mission Bay South.” The project’s ultimate goal was to build 6,000 residential units in the new neighborhood. Half of those were completed between 1998 and 2010. The rest, as anyone who’s recently strolled down Fourth Street knows, are either under construction, just finished or waiting to break ground.

Early building focused on Mission Bay North and consisted of several mid-rise condominium buildings, communities like Arterra, Park Terrace and The Edgewater on Berry Street and The Beacon and Signature on King Street, along with a few large apartment complexes (notably Avalon I and II and 355 Berry). It wasn’t until 2006 that 417-unit Radiance became the first Mission Bay residential complex built south of Mission Creek.

In August, 2012, Madrone, located adjacent to Pier 52 on Terry Francois Boulevard, kicked off the second phase of building in Mission Bay. Madrone debuted to great fanfare, preselling 200 of its 329 units then selling 97 more during its first month of “official” sales. From Madrone development moved to a few blocks inland, to Fourth Street. Long-range plans here are to create a mixed-use urban core for Mission Bay, with retail, restaurants, commercial space and hundreds of apartment and condominium homes.

On and around Fourth Street today you’ll find new or almost-complete buildings at 1155 Fourth (Venue), 1180 Fourth (Mercy Housing, with 175 Below Market Rate units), 1201 Fourth (Strata) and 185 Channel Street (Channel Mission Bay). When complete these five complexes will add approximately 1,200 residential units, the majority of them for lease, to the neighborhood. Channel Mission Bay, which opened for business in February, has already leased 35 percent of its 315 apartments.

Mission Bay’s new residential communities are luxurious, with generous living spaces, of-the-moment style and amenities like on-site fitness and business centers, barbecue areas, movie theaters and concierge service. Venue, at 1155 Fourth, adds some additional, somewhat quirky perks like a waterfall, an on-site car wash and an on-site dog wash.

The present phase of construction is hardly Mission Bay’s last gasp. With the 2008-2010 market downturn firmly in the rearview, ambitious development has roared back to life. Under construction at Fourth and Channel is Sol, a 21-story, 273-unit condominium building due for completion in early 2015.  One block away at Third and Channel a proposal featuring a 250-room luxury hotel and 350 residential units is moving forward, and the impressively-named “Mission Rock Megaproject,” currently in its planning stages, aims to create a mini-neighborhood, with commercial and retail spaces, restaurants, hotels and residential buildings out of a series of parking lots located across McCovey Cove from AT & T Park. The project has already inked its first tenant, iconic San Francisco business Anchor Brewing.

Other Mission Bay projects underway include a new Public Safety Building, a children’s park and a massive park at Mission Bay Boulevard South and San Francisco Bicycle Route 5. Though it may seem that an entire neighborhood has appeared and matured in only 15 years, Mission Bay’s future plans suggest that we haven’t seen anything yet.

Source : Parascopesf.com

New Case-Shiller report: SF Metro Area bumps up again

While the nation as a whole saw a tiny decrease in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index in the January report released today, the San Francisco Metro Area Index (for 5 northern counties) bumped up again. The C-S Index for higher priced houses has now completely re-attained the previous market peak set in 2006, as measured by January data points. The city of San Francisco itself has exceeded the rise in the 5-county area and has generally surpassed previous peak values – many SF neighborhoods by substantial margins.

Based upon what we are seeing on the ground, we expect to see further increases once the late winter/early spring selling season is reflected in the Index.

This first chart shows market cycles over the past 30 plus years. The second chart shows appreciation since our current market recovery began.

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This chart tracks the most recent market recovery which began in earnest in early 2012. In both 2012 and 2013, the spring seasons saw substantial jumps in home values. We recently thought the likelihood of yet another significant jump in 2014 to be relatively low, but the market we’re seeing on the ground – a very high demand/very low supply dynamic – is leading us to suspect otherwise.

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Case-Shiller measures a 5-county metro area comprised of San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The numbers used relate to a January 2000 value of 100; thus 184 signifies 84% home price appreciation over the past 14 years. The Index is published 2 months after the latest monthly reading, i.e. the January Index has just been published today, March 25th.

The full report can be found online here.

Neighborhood Affordability in San Francisco

Where You Can Buy for the Money You Want to Spend

San Francisco Home Sales by Neighborhood

You want to buy a house in San Francisco for under a million dollars, or for over $2 million, or you have $1,800,000 to spend on a luxury condo with a spectacular view. If you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs, except for sales in the luxury segment: generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points, though, obviously, size and quality will vary. Also, all the new condo projects being built in many different areas of the city is changing the neighborhood pricing dynamic for condos.

For your convenience, a neighborhood map can be found at the bottom of this report.

The charts below are based upon sales reported to MLS in the 12 months between March 1, 2013 and February 28, 2014. We’ve broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. There are exceptions to neighborhood norms scattered throughout the city and in an appreciating market these price ranges having been moving upward.

Buying a House for Under $1 million in San Francisco

Out of the approximately 2635 house sales in the past year, about 50% sold for under $1 million. The vast majority of these sales occur in a large swath of neighborhoods forming a giant L shape, down the west side of the city, from Outer Richmond to the border with Daly City, and then sweeping east across the southern side of San Francisco to Bayview and Hunter’s Point. Generally speaking, the western and central-ish neighborhoods cost more than the southern neighborhoods in this under $1m house market.

Houses in these neighborhoods began their recovery from the market downturn a step or two behind more expensive areas in San Francisco, but now the markets here are red hot and very competitive, and home prices are under very strong upward pressure.

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Houses for $1 Million to $1.5 Million

In this price point, one moves into a big circle of neighborhoods in the middle of the city plus the Richmond District in the northwest. Within this circle, one will typically get significantly more house for one’s money in the Sunset, Central and Outer Richmond, Miraloma Park or Bernal Heights than in Glen Park or Potrero Hill, or especially, Noe or Eureka Valley.

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Houses for $1.5 million to $2 million

As the price range goes up, the number of sales begin to narrow. The neighborhoods in this house price range are similar to the previous range, but sales predominate in central Realtor District 5, which comprises the greater Noe- Eureka-Cole Valleys area. District 5 has been a white hot market for the last two years and competition for homes here is ferocious.

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Buying a Luxury Home in San Francisco

Rather arbitrarily, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales in San Francisco: these homes now make up about 14% of total home sales (up from about 10-11% a few years ago). Once again, what you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely – a large, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.

Luxury home sales in San Francisco are dominated by the swath of established, prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff through Pacific Heights and Russian Hill to Telegraph Hill, by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, and, to a lesser extent, the smaller neighborhoods around St. Francis Wood. For luxury condos, the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay area has a large and growing presence as big, expensive condo projects have sprouted there over the past 15 years.

Luxury Condo, Co-op and TIC Sales

As one can see, no area has more luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales overall than the Pacific Heights-Marina district, but the Russian Hill-Nob Hill-Financial District area has more sales of $2 million and above, and again the South Beach-Yerba Buena area is the fastest growing luxury condo market and will probably take first position in the not too distant future. The average dollar per square foot values for luxury condos in the major neighborhoods below run $918 in the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, $961 in the Pacific Heights-Marina district, $1147 in the Russian-Nob-Telegraph Hills district, and $1229 in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area (think newer construction, high floor units and spectacular views).

With the construction of new high-end, high-tech-amenity condo projects on Market Street and Van Ness, and in neighborhoods like the Inner Mission, Hayes Valley and Inner Richmond — often selling for more than $1000 per square foot — luxury condos are now spreading into new areas of the city.

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Luxury House Sales in San Francisco

It wasn’t so long ago that houses selling in Realtor District 5, the greater Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys area (which includes Clarendon, Corona and Ashbury Heights), for over $2 million were an exception. But that is certainly not the case any longer. If we looked closer at the sales in the $2 million to $5 million, we’d find the higher end of the range dominated by Realtor District 7, the Pacific Heights-Marina area, the most expensive house market in the city. Though District 5 does see sales in the $3.5 to $5+ million range, most of its luxury houses sell between $2 million and $3.5 million. There are several other significant areas for these high-end houses, such as Lake Street/Sea Cliff, St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill and Lower Pacific Heights.

Most luxury houses in the city were built in the period between 1905 and 1950, reflecting the era of construction dominating these neighborhoods of San Francisco — and a gracious, elegant era it was. However, there are a small number of big, new houses built each year, as well as some beautiful fifties houses scattered here and there, and, of course, many of the older houses have been extensively renovated over the years.

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And, as illustrated below, at the very top of the luxury house market, the district of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina completely dominates sales. Here mansions can sell for up to $20 million or $30 million. Houses in Russian Hill are also exceedingly expensive, but there are very few houses in that area: Russian & Nob Hills are dominated by high-end condos and co-ops. Two additional house sales (both listed by Paragon) in the $5 million to $7 million range closed in Noe Valley in the first half of March 2014 (after the time period of this analysis) — another indication of what’s happening there, often driven by young, high-tech wealth. It should be noted that a fair percentage of these ultra high-end home sales occur privately, outside of MLS, and are not reflected in this chart.

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San Francisco Neighborhood Map

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Current SF Home Value Tables by Neighborhood

These tables report average and median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values, along with average home size and units sold, by property type and bedroom count for a wide variety of San Francisco neighborhoods. The tables follow the map in the following order: houses by bedroom count, condos by bedroom count, 2-bedroom TICs, and finally a small table on 2-unit building sales.

The analysis is based upon sales reported to MLS between April 1, 2013, when the last big surge in home values began in San Francisco, and February 21, 2014. Value statistics are generalities that are affected by a number of market factors and all numbers should be considered approximate.

“m” signifies millions of dollars; “k” signifies thousands; N/A means there wasn’t enough data for reliable results. Expanding your screen view to zoom 125% will make the map and charts that much easier to read.

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These statistics apply only to home sales with at least 1 car parking. Homes without parking typically sell at a significant discount. Below Market Rate (BMR) condos were excluded from the analysis.

The average size of homes vary widely by neighborhood. Besides affluence, the era and style of construction often play a large role in these size disparities. Some neighborhoods are well known for having “bonus” bedrooms and baths built without permit (often behind the garage). Such additions can add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in square footage and $/sq.ft. figures.

If a price is followed by a “k” it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions of dollars. Sales unreported to MLS are not included in this analysis, and where abnormal “outliers” were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted as well. N/A signifies that there wasn’t enough reliable data to generate the statistic.

The Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events or by changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in value. The median sale price for an area will often conceal a wide variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Average sales prices may be distorted by one or two sales significantly higher or lower than the normal range. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Size and $/sq.ft. values were only calculated on listings that provided square footage figures. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo’s will be higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC’s higher than a multi-unit building’s (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

Neighborhood Market Reports *** Information for Buyers *** Information for Sellers
SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

Source : Paragon-re.com

Scoping out: Mission Bay

It’s safe to say that Mission Bay is San Francisco’s fastest-growing neighborhood. Empty Southern Pacific Railroad yards only 15 years ago, the district is now home to some of San Francisco’s finest apartment and condominium complexes, with more going up seemingly every day. Want to see the future of Mission Bay? Stand at the corner of Third Street and Mission Bay Boulevard and look back toward downtown. You’ll see no fewer than four cranes busy at work, lifting girders and beams into place on what will soon be two new mid-rise apartment complexes, Venue and MB 360. Google Maps still shows the two-block stretch of Fourth Street between Channel and China Basin as an unbroken string of parking lots; they need to catch up.

The neighborhood genesis is simple: once part of San Francisco Bay, Mission Bay was created over a period of time ending in 1910 when land excavated from other parts of the city – notably Rincon Hill – was dumped into the bay. The new real estate transformed a rough-and-tumble waterfront into a patchwork of utilitarian railroad yards and stayed that way for almost a century, until 1998, when Mission Bay was targeted for redevelopment by the City of San Francisco. Catellus, a real estate firm created when Southern Pacific merged with the Santa Fe Railroad, was charged with the job of creating the new neighborhood.

In 2003, Mission Bay’s first major commercial development, the 43-acre USCF Mission Bay Campus, was completed. Since then, Mission Bay has become a magnet for healthcare, pharmaceutical and biotechnology business, attracting the likes of Bayer, Nektar and Fibrogen. Residential development followed UCSF to the neighborhood, beginning on a corridor of Berry Street, across Mission Creek from the heart of Mission Bay. It has since spread throughout the area.

It’s not easy creating a neighborhood out of nothing but it is easy to see why Mission Bay was chosen for that task. Centrally located and within easy walking distance of downtown and AT & T Park, it offers easy access to Caltrain, MUNI and Highway 280, stellar new housing, great bay and city views and a long stretch of waterfront.

Its developers have anticipated residents’ tastes and needs by attracting a diverse group of restaurants and night spots – nearby King Street is lined with new businesses, restaurants like Umami Burger, Nama, a branch of Amici’s Pizza and, at the ballpark, the Public House and Momo’s – including a neo-classic bowling alley/night club, Lucky Strike Bowl. King Street is also where residents can go for everyday services like Safeway and Walgreens, maybe stopping on their way home at the city’s newest library branch (opened in 2006), at 960 Fourth Street.

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Mission Bay has multiple parks, including the promenade behind AT & T Park and UCSF’s central Koret Quad, a large green space featuring multiple outdoor art installations. A section of the 500-mile San Francisco Bay Trail runs along the Mission Bay waterfront. Mission Creek, a venerable waterway at the western edge of the neighborhood, features green space and public walking paths on both shores.

Mission Creek is also where you’ll find evidence of Mission Bay’s funkier days. A group of 20 or so houseboats – “floating homes” – has been bobbing up and down on the creek since the early 1970s, a small anachronistic outlier surrounded by progress and growth of a distinctly 21st-century fashion.

Maybe Mission Creek’s funky houseboat settlement isn’t too much of an outlier, though. All along Terry Francois Boulevard, at Mission Bay’s eastern border, are reminders of a different time and place – weatherbeaten maritime buildings, no-nonsense working piers, ships in the Pier 54 dry dock and a bit of local color, the Bay View Boat Club. Home to an annual “Plastic Regatta,” the club’s modest yellow clubhouse was towed from Hunters Point to its present site at 489 Terry Francois Boulevard in 1962.

There it stays, in the shadow of the shiny new headquarters of clothier Old Navy, a fun reminder that even in San Francisco’s most dynamically changing, newest neighborhood, a little bit of the old city shines through.

Source : http://www.parascopesf.com/scoping-out-mission-bay

What’s New in San Francisco New Developments

There are a number of new developments in San Francisco that are being planned, in progress, and selling out as we speak. Here’s a selection of projects around the city to give you an idea of recent changes, ones that are currently happening, and ones that are just around the corner.

 Status: In planning, approved, about to break ground, breaking ground.

 Status: Under Construction, almost complete, pre-sales.

building copyStatus: Selling, almost sold-out, sold-out.

Click the top right to view full screen

Source : http://www.parascopesf.com/whats-new-in-san-francisco-new-developments

Tentative Signs of a Shifting Real Estate Market

February 2014 San Francisco Market Report

It is far too early in the year to reach definitive conclusions regarding substantive changes in the market, but there are indications of a number of shifts. From the hurly burly on the street, the word is that the quantity of offers coming in on new listings is declining. Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, 3 or 4 are coming in now; where 3 or 4 offers would have arrived, the seller is getting 1. And, according to Broker Metrics, for every 2 listings that accepted offers in December and January, another listing expired or was withdrawn without selling.

The amount of competition deeply affects home price increases.

There are still a very large number of buyers looking at listings online and at open houses. But more of them appear to be first-time buyers and they are proceeding more cautiously. Some buyers are burned out on the multiple-offer bidding frenzies of last year and are reluctant to participate in them. Though the market remains hot by any reasonable standard, by some statistical measures it is cooling. This may reflect a transition or only a lull before the spring sales season begins.

Recently, the investment-property analysis firm Reis speculated that SF apartment-rent growth — which has been extraordinary by any measure, especially in a period of low inflation — will slow despite intense demand and very low vacancy rates, simply because people can’t pay any more. It’s an idea which may or may not be correct or apply to other types of housing costs. Rent rates do play a role in purchase prices as buyers often compare the net housing costs of the two options.

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Median Sales Price Appreciation by Neighborhood

In San Francisco, some of the most affluent neighborhoods — such as the Pacific Heights-Marina district and the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district — started their recoveries in the second half of 2011, well before virtually every place else in the city or country. When 2012 began, prices in these districts soared, while other areas played catch up. In 2013, that dynamic flipped: Appreciation rates in comparatively less expensive neighborhoods surged, while slowing in the most affluent areas.

A big part of this is simple affordability: Priced out in one neighborhood (or city), buyers focused on others, similar in ambiance but less costly. Home prices there looked so good in comparison that buyers were willing to bid them up. The huge decline of distressed sales in areas severely affected, such as in Bayview, has had an outsized effect on median sales prices there. Continuing gentrification, as in the Mission, and increasing “luxury” condo construction in less affluent areas have also played parts in this trend. It’s not as if demand plunged in the Pacific Heights-Marina district (or Noe Valley, for that matter). Quite the contrary: its 9% appreciation rate in 2013 translated into the city’s largest median price increase in dollar terms ($300,000). However, in the previous year, this district saw year over year median price appreciation of 25%.

Note that median price appreciation does not perfectly correlate to changes in home values, as it can be affected by a variety of market factors. It does give an approximate sense of market trends.

2Percentage of Sales Price above Asking Price
As the market turnaround began in earnest in early 2012, two trends emerged: 1) increasing percentages of sales without any previous reductions in list price, hitting a whopping 90% of sales in May 2013, and 2) sales prices exceeding asking prices by escalating percentages, hitting an incredible average of 9% over list price in June of last year. Both of these highs reflect the ferocious spring 2013 market frenzy. Since then, these statistics dropped, stabilized and have now dropped some more. One shouldn’t make too much of a month or two of data, and it must be noted that the January numbers — 81% of sales occurred before any price reductions, at an average of about 4% over list price — would signify a red hot market at any other place or time, but they are significant drops from those predominating last year. We won’t know whether it’s a seasonal blip or the beginning of a major shift until the spring selling season gets underway.

3Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 2012-2013 Appreciation
This chart is updated through November 2013, reflecting the last Index report published by Case-Shiller: It illustrates approximate Bay Area home price appreciation for higher priced homes, which San Francisco’s generally are, over the past 2 years. Spring 2012 and especially spring 2013 saw very large upswings in values, but prices then stabilized and basically plateaued since last summer began. Will this spring bring another increase in prices or has the market exhausted its appreciation momentum for now? We shall soon know. Note that chart numbers refer to January 2000 values designated as 100: 181 signifies home values 81% above that of January 2000.

This link goes to a chart looking at the past 18 years of home price appreciation, illustrating longer term cycles in real estate:
Case-Shiller Index since 1996

4Inventory of Homes for Sale
One thing that has not changed in the market is the very low level of homes available to purchase. Historically, inventory usually surges in spring, declines somewhat during the summer, jumps again in autumn (September is typically the single month with the greatest number of new listings) and then plunges dramatically for the holidays and mid-winter. Agents and buyers are desperately hoping for a major surge of new inventory in the next couple months. Generally speaking, low inventory puts upward pressure on prices when buyer demand is healthy.This link looks at Months Supply of Inventory. While still very low — anything under 3 months is typically considered a Sellers’ market — it is climbing. The lower the MSI, the stronger buyer demand is as compared to the supply of homes available to buy, and the more likely prices are to rise.
Months Supply of Inventory

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Updated Neighborhood Price Charts
We’ve updated long-term market value charts for several dozen San Francisco neighborhoods. This one is for Bernal Heights, a neighborhood which experienced feverish appreciation in 2013. This link below goes to the webpage containing all these neighborhood charts. Let us know if you can’t easily find one for the neighborhood or property type you’re most interested in.
SF Neighborhood Home Values

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Mortgage Interest Rates
Confounding “expert” predictions once again, interest rates in the first week of February fell to their lowest point in almost 3 months, though they were still about 1 percentage point above the historic lows of one year ago. Interest rates play an enormous role in homeownership affordability, and the incredibly low rates of recent years have been a significant factor in the market recovery. They are expected to rise, but then they were expected to jump to 6% or more in 2010 and fell dramatically instead. Where they will go this year is one of the wild cards of the real estate market.

Unusual Spike in Condo Median Sales Price

January is not a high-sales quantity month as its sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in December, the slowest month of the year, and monthly median price data is not that reliable as it can fluctuate without great meaningfulness. However, an odd data point came up for median sales prices in January: The median price for SF houses dropped an insignificant amount, from $938,000 in the 4th quarter of 2013 to $928,000 in January (down from a brief spike to $976,000 in the 2nd quarter). However, the median sales price for SF condos made a very big leap from $835,000 in the 4th quarter to $927,500 in January, the highest monthly condo median price ever. Of the 144 January condo sales reported to MLS as of 2/8/14, 45 sold for $1,200,000 or more. This is an unusually high percentage of high-end condo sales, especially for a January — January 2013 had 19 such transactions — and is probably just one of the anomalies we sometimes see in monthly sales data. (We much prefer longer-term data.) We’ll have to watch what happens in future months.

One can never take for granted exactly what is going to happen next in the San Francisco real estate market.