Focus on Potrero Hill

Back from vacation, and ready to blog and roll!

I’m currently working with a couple of clients looking for homes in the Potrero Hill District.  Here, we’re talking specifically about subdistrict 9.E under San Francisco’s MLS (Multiple Listing Service).

It’s an area that roughly sits between I-280 and I-101, with Cesar Chavez at its the south end and the tangle of 101/Design District/Division at its north end.  With major arteries at all ends as well as proximity to Caltrain, it’s a favorite for people who need good commute access.  It’s also got some of the best weather in San Francisco.  The crest of Potrero Hill sits at intersection of Carolina and 22nd Street.  Homes on the  “north slope” — ie.  north of 22nd Street — boast spectacular views of downtown SF and the Bay and therefore fetch a premium.   Potrero Hill has a small but upscalish shopping/cafe strip located on 18th between Connecticut and Texas.  The recently opened Whole Foods at Rhode Island and 17th hasn’t hurt either.  Architecture is a mix of broad two-story Victorians and newer modern structures designed to take advantage of the weather and the views, especially on the north slope.

Apparently the denizens of Potrero Hill like their neighborhood because there are very few sales.  In fact, based on my review of sales of single family homes back to 2003, there’s an average of just 4 sales per month.  Sometimes there are none at all.  With so few sales each month, I’ve used averages to look at values rather than medians.  Prices seem to have remained incredibly stable over a long period of time.  This chart shows price on a per square foot basis (click to enlarge).

Potrero Hill SFD sales

Potrero has the reputation of being a relatively affordable area, and perhaps it is if you’re talking about Noe Valley or Pacific Heights.  In June 2010, the average home sales price for the city as a whole (based on 217 sales) was $1,107,000 — about $100,000 over the average for Potrero.   However, the average price per square foot for the city as a whole came in at $523 — substantially below that for Potrero.  With so few monthly sales available in Potrero, I’d be cautious about drawing any conclusions from one month.  As the chart trend line shows, Potrero’s price average price per square foot looks remarkably stable at around $560 currently.  That seems consistent with the idea that Potrero Hill is one of San Francisco’s better, if not poshest, neighborhoods.

Districts 3 and 10, R.I.P.

The Excelsior, Bayview, Hunter’s Point, Oceanview, Ingleside:  these are some of the neighborhoods included in the San Francisco Association of Realtors’  MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Districts 3 and 10.  It’s been suggested here and elsewhere  that perhaps these non-“core” San Francisco neighborhoods have been pulling down San Francisco’s home prices disproportionately.  The theory, plausible enough, is that these more modestly-priced neighborhoods would be feeling the effects of the economic slowdown more than the tonier “core” neighborhoods, whose denizens’ bank accounts might provide a little more padding against hard times.
I recently published a chart that compared the percentage change of Districts 3 and 10 from their all-time highs to that of the city as a whole.  Some readers of theFrontSteps expressed an interest in seeing what the chart would look like if you excluded those districts from the data set for the city as a whole.  (Districts 3 and 10 make up over 20% of the city’s single family home sales for the 5 year period covered by the chart.)  I aim to please, so I ran the numbers again and here are the results.
focus-on-dists-3-and-10-vs-all-dists

The chart confirms, once and for all, that however you want to cut it – with or without Districts 3 and 10 – home values for the the “core” San Francisco Districts have fallen almost as far as those for the outer Districts.  They just took a little longer to start falling, that’s all.

Bottom line:  We don’t have Districts 3 and 10 to kick around any more.  I’m going to start rolling out comparisons of specific districts and neighborhoods to the city as a whole (ie.  “All Districts”), starting with some that have supposedly weathered the market reasonably well.  I think you’ll find the results surprising.  I know I did.