Tag: foreclosures

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Up Again in May

Note: Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

The aggregate C-S Index for the SF Metro Area is up approximately 30% – 34% from its low point, but is still approximately 20% below its peak in 2006. Please note that for a drop of 30% to be recouped, the increase must be about 43%.

When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point. With the recovery that began in 2012 and has accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

The lowest price range (terribly affected by foreclosures and distressed sales) fell most dramatically – an approximate 60% decline from its peak. It is now recovering dramatically on a percentage basis – up 38% from its low point – but is still way below its 2006 peak. It simply has much more loss to make up.

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The upper price range (the top third of unit sales) in the 5-county metro area fell much less than the 2 lower price tiers (low and middle) during the bubble pop. On a percentage basis, it’s increase from its low point – about 25% — is not as great as for the lowest price tier, but is now getting close again to its previous peak value. In the city of San Francisco itself, many neighborhoods have now reached or surpassed previous peak values reached in 2007-2008.

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This chart below illustrates the short-term monthly changes in the C-S high tier price index: the recovery in 2012 accelerating in 2013. May’s reading jumped 3.7% from April’s.

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

And then looking just at the city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area: many of its neighborhoods are now blowing past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices and that the rate of appreciation accelerated in the March-May timeframe. Note that median sales prices and C-S Index numbers do not correlate exactly.

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Case-Shiller: Different Bubbles, Different Accelerating Recoveries

Note: Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “San Francisco” are for a 5-county area, of which the city’s housing market is a very small part. Since they are published 2 months after the month of the Index, are 3-month rolling averages, and the time between offer acceptance and closed sale typically runs 4-8 weeks, Case-Shiller is generally 3-6 months behind the market itself, i.e. when offers are being negotiated in the present. Case-Shiller publishes 4 main indices for SF Metro Area houses: an aggregate index for all price ranges, and then one index for each third of unit sales – low price, middle price and high price tiers.

When the market fell from its peak in 2006-early 2008 (different areas and different market segments peaked at different times), the scale of the decline varied widely, mostly by price point. With the recovery that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2013, the magnitude of the price recovery, as compared to previous peak values, has also varied by price point and area.

The lowest price range (terribly affected by foreclosures and distressed sales) fell most dramatically – approximate 60% decline – and though recovering dramatically on a percentage basis, is still way below its peak. It simply has much more loss to make up.

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The upper price range (the top third of unit sales) in the 5-county metro area fell much less during the bubble pop and with the recovery is getting close again to peak values:

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This chart below illustrates the short-term changes in the C-S high tier index: the recovery in 2012 accelerating in 2013:

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And then looking just atthe city of San Francisco itself, which has, generally speaking, among the highest home prices in the 5-county metro area: many of its neighborhoods are now blowing past previous peak values. Note that this chart has more recent price appreciation data than available in the Case-Shiller Indices and that the rate of appreciation accelerated in the March-May timeframe. This is also for both houses and condos combined, when the C-S charts used above are for house sales only.

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Bay Area sees patchwork recovery from housing crash

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“According to an analysis by this newspaper of home values by ZIP code, with higher priced homes, such as the core of Silicon Valley and parts of San Francisco, have recovered much of the home equity lost in the crash. The data is for all types of homes: single-family, condos and townhouses. But neighborhoods with low-cost homes, especially those in parts of Alameda and Contra Costa counties, are still far below peak values, hurt by the waves of foreclosures that struck those areas.”

The full article with map is here: http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_20402461/bay-area-sees-patchwork-recovery-from-housing-crash

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Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers: What SF Home-Buyers Bought in 2012

Mansions, Penthouses, Foreclosures & Fixer-Uppers
What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2012

Of all the homes purchased in San Francisco in 2012:
• How many had Golden Gate Bridge views? Or ocean views?
• How many were Victorian, Edwardian or Art Deco?
• How many had solar heating, elevators, pools or doorpersons?
• How many were bank sales, probate sales or short sales?
• What neighborhoods had the most sales over $5,000,000?
For our annual special report, we data-mined all of 2012′s MLS sales.
We hope you find the results as interesting as we did.

For updated information on home values and market conditions,
use our link to “Market Dynamics Charts” at the bottom of this newsletter.

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Double Dip — Again?

Woke up this morning to NPR announcing that new home sales were the lowest they’d been in 15 years.  The housing market is already in a double dip, with some additional price declines  on the horizon, though we’re near the bottom.  As for the broader economy, we’re skating awfully close, but nobody really knows yet whether we’ll eke out some anemic growth or slide back into recession.

This charming news was followed by another bit of analysis that makes so much sense in retrospect that I’m surprised we haven’t heard it stated more often.  What’s well known is how the wave of foreclosures has affected millions of people directly and the corresponding effect on the economy as they lose their homes, their savings, and their credit ratings.  But second only to that in terms of its drag on the economy is the effect that declining values have had on people’s ability to move to where the jobs might be.  Simply put, there’s a huge number of people who would move, but they can’t because they’re so underwater on their homes.  Since they can’t move, they remain unemployed or underemployed, and since there won’t be any significant recovery in the housing market until jobs come back, they remain stuck in a vicious downward cycle.   You can find the transcript here.

And a post script.  You may have noticed a drop-off in my blogs lately.  Summer vacation and the need to work on my development project have taken a toll on the amount of time I have had available to research and write.  But don’t erase me from your blog roll yet, please!  My eyes and ears are open, and I will try, try, try to post more often as soon as I get my head above water.

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Heat Map of San Francisco Foreclosures

There’s been a fair bit of discussion on various real estate blogs about the state of foreclosures in San Francisco.  Here’s a picture of SF, courtesy of Hotpads, on our little patch of heaven.

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Core SF neighborhoods seem to be doing OK, though worse than “average” — not defined by Hotpads as best as I could tell.  Outer neighborhoods are not doing so well.

The big surprise is the amount of red over in Marin, including toney areas like Sausalito and Mill Valley.  Frankly, I’m skeptical; it just doesn’t add up.  There’s not a lot of information on the free part of their website on their methodology though I believe they’re using data from Realtytrac, which has its own fee-based foreclosure radar website.  If I come up with better information I’ll update this posting.