Tag: graph

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Seller’s Market/ Buyer’s Market?

Typically, after a multi-years’ downturn such as occurred in the early eighties and the early nineties and such as we’re just coming out of now, when the market turns, appreciation goes into its own multi-year climb. Even though the market went absolutely crazy in 1996, and despite the bubble popping in 2008, people who bought then have seen 120% appreciation in home value (much less the vastly larger return on their initial down-payment investment, not to mention the huge tax benefits — and that it was an investment that also was a home).

Though the absolutely best time recently to buy in San Francisco, in retrospect, was in 2010-2011, we are still just past the cusp of the bottom of the market. Historically, that is a very good time to buy.

Please note that in the below Case-Shiller chart, the graph is not proportional to the time period from 1988 to 2000: those 12 years show up as much shorter than the 12 years from 2000 to 2012.

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Waiting for the Other Sheep To Drop… Or Not

sheep_off_cliff

Does anyone really know what’s going on?  Despite the gloom and doom of my recent posts (Waiting for the Other Sheep to Drop, Alphabet Soup:  What Shape will the Recovery Take?), the latest publication of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) on Tuesday trumpets:  “Fifth Consecutive Increase!”  The LEI is supposed to predict economic activity approximately 6 months into the future, so you’d think that a five-month run would mean it’s time to celebrate, especially given what looks like the impressive bounce shown in this graph.

Picture 1

(The Coincident Economic Index — blue line — shows what’s happening to the economy currently, and — no surprise — it shows we’ve bottomed out.)

To be sure, The Conference Board hedges its bets and says that while a recovery is near, “the intensity and pattern of that recovery is more uncertain.” You can find the full report here.

Meanwhile, today’s WSJ headline reads”Rebound in Home Sales Hits a Bump” , with national sales declining last month after four straight months of increases. (Thank you, X-Man, for the heads-up on this article.)

What does all this mean?  I think it means two things.  1. The worst is over.  2.  You might just as well go consult your magic 8-ball (“signs point to yes,” “ask again later”…) as consult the experts on what the recovery will look like.