Tag: hoffman

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Noe Valley: The Condo/TIC market

At long last, here’s the promised data on Noe Valley condos and TIC’s.

First, a look back (in anger?) at the make-up of Noe Valley sales in 2009.

Note that there were more than twice as many condos sold as TICs, and more homes sold than condos and TICs put together. (What’s a TIC?  — Check out my series of posts on Tenancy-In-Common Interests, starting here.)

Also, that absurdly long DOM for TICs was distorted by 3 TICs at 201 Hoffman that took 410 days to sell.  Still, without those sales, DOM for TICs (tired of the acronyms yet?) was still 99 days.  And I’d be somewhat skeptical of the whopping difference in price between TICs and condos as well:  TICs sales often don’t have a price per square foot listed, so there are very few data points — and there are very few sales to begin with.

Here’s how condos and TICs have been doing as a combined group, versus their all-time highs.

That precipitous plunge (actually a huge increase since the scale is reversed) in DOM at the end of 2009 was also due to the lingering effects of 201 Hoffman.

For a shorter term view, prices through February 2010 are up 11% from January 2009 and are up a whopping 31% from the trough of June 2009.  Since I use trailing 3 month averages, I think this is a belated reflection of the deep credit freeze of Spring 2009 when we thought the world might come to an end.

And here’s how condos and TICs stacked up against homes.

For what it’s worth, it feels like spring has really sprung.  Nice-looking condos/tics are swarming with people and are moving fast — no kidding.  Whether it will last is anybody’s guess.

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Update on What $2.1 Million Buys in Noe Valley — (now it’s under $2 million)

Back in February I posted about two $2.1 million homes offered for sale in my ‘hood. 731 Douglass had 3,000 square feet of good, livable space and the sorts of finishes and flourishes  you’d expect.  But it had no back yard and was located on the fairly busy corner of 24th Street and Douglass, with a Muni stop and Noe Valley Courts’ sand-pit within spitting distance of the front windows.

731-douglass-now
731 Douglass

Meanwhile 110 Hoffman, offered at just $2,000 less than Douglass, had a little less space and a vertical, less user-friendly lay-out.  But, location it had in spades, on one of Noe’s best and quietest streets.  Plus it had a spacious back yard with a lovely mature tree.

110 Hoffman
110 Hoffman

My good friend and blogging critic, Mike Dashe  — the American part of the Franco-American wine-making duo who own Dashe Cellars — recently took me to task for not doing what any good story-teller does: tell ’em how it ends.  So here’s the final chapter folks.

731 Douglass came in first, selling for a respectable $1.85 million, or 85% of the listing price after just 48 days.  Good show!  Though it’s worth noting that this was a cool $100,000 LESS than it sold for back in March 2005, when it was on the market for just 18 days.  (There’s more proof of the correlation between price and DOM — days on market — see my previous post.)

110 Hoffman had a more torturous ride to the finish-line.  Originally listed at $2.395 million, it suffered two price drops and was ultimately withdrawn from the market 102 days later when it failed to sell at $2.148. Fast-forward five months to July and it’s back on the market at $1.995.  And, after falling in and out of contract, and back in —  it sells for….

$1,995,000.  Full list price and all within 10 days if the MLS Database can be believed.

That’s a cool $100k more than 731 Douglass.

What went on here?  I honestly don’t think this was a case of location trumping space.  Instead, it’s about timing.  731 Douglass went on the market in January and sold in March.  Prices generally fall somewhat during winter months.  But much more importantly, does anyone remember how the financial world was coming to an end right at that time? The stock market was dropping like a stone and no one knew where it would end.  (In fact, the S&P 500 hit bottom on March 9.)

I remember when I had the misfortune of putting the first property I ever owned on the market not long after 9/11/01.  I’m convinced that it sold for around $300k less than it would have at any other time.

Seen in this light, it sure seems like the owners (and the agent) of 110 Hoffman made the right decision to bide their time.  A few months later, the sun breaks out literally and metaphorically and things are moving again. Here’s a case where the tortoise beat the hare.

And speaking of odd-looking creatures, let’s get back to Dashe Cellars and their beautiful wines (you gotta try their single vineyard Zins.)  Mike, would you care to explain what’s with the monkey and the, ahem, “whale?”

Picture 5

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What $2.1 million buys in Noe Valley

Out on brokers’ tour yesterday, I looked in on two homes  available in my Noe Valley neighborhood, priced within $2,000 of each other.  731 Douglass (at 24th Street) sold in March 2005 for $1.944 million and a mere $29o,000 in March 1997, when it was a sad-looking 1200 ft marina-style house, with a 6-car garage.  Back then:

731-douglass-old

and now:

731-douglass-now

In 1999, the owners completely redid the building, right around the same time that my wife and I were remodeling our house just around the corner and converting it from a two-unit building into a single family home.  At the time, there weren’t too many larger homes in Noe Valley.  Now, everybody seems to be adding floors or building out the basement.

For $2,150,000 you’ll get 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, plus an office with panoramic views of the city on the top level, plus a good- sized family room downstairs.  Around 3,000 square feet, based on the 2005 listing information.  It’s a nice livable layout, has lots of light and the high quality finishes you’d expect.

What’s missing?  No backyard, just a postage-stamp sized courtyard.  Another possible negative:  it’s across the street from Noe Courts and the bus stop for the 48 Quintara which might make it a little noisier than average.

Just up the hill and around the corner, on one of the nicest streets in Noe Valley,  is 110 Hoffman Street @ 23rd, selling for $2,148,000 after two price drops.  Originally listed for $2.395 back in November.

110-hoffman

This one sold a year ago for $1.2 million as a 1600 sf “fixer”.  Well, they sure fixed it.  It’s now just under 2900 sf, 4BR/3.5 BA family room/media room, and a built-out attic with panoramic views of the city, accessible by a spiral staircase.  The flow of the space is not quite as good as  731 Douglass and there’s less of it.  But it’s an impressive home nonetheless.

What 110 Hoffman has that Douglass doesn’t is a beautiful back yard and a location on one of Noe Valley’s best streets.  Now that Hoffman’s price is returning to earth, it’ll be interesting seeing how these two thoroughbreds compete.