Tag: median sales price

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Updated Housing Market Charts

Noe & Eureka Valley Houses:

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Cole Valley-Ashbury Heights-Clarendon & Corona Heights Houses:

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Glen Park Houses:

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Condos, Selected District 5 Neighborhoods:

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District 5 Residential 2-4 Unit Buildings:

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District 2 Houses

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Inner Sunset House Median Sales Price. FYI: Inner Sunset general dollar per square foot values actually track overall District 2 dollar per square foot values. For example in the 1st half, District 2 was $579/sq.ft. and Inner Sunset was $580/sq.ft. – of course, it all varies by the specific property.

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April Newsletter: A Hot Market Getting Hotter

San Francisco: A Hot Market Getting Hotter

1st Quarter 2013 Market Report

In 2012, the market turned with a vengeance and grew very hot very quickly. Now in 2013 it has grown even hotter. Recent deal-making stories almost make the seemingly crazy, multiple-offer tales of last year appear sedate. The supply of listings is drastically low against buyer demand, and the pace of price appreciation looks to be accelerating. Some city neighborhoods appear to be surpassing the previous peak values reached in 2007-2008. As seen below, the first quarter’s numbers reveal big increases in home values year over year. And the month of March alone saw a particularly big jump of almost 9% above February’s median price.

March sales prices reflect the heat of the market 4-8 weeks earlier, when the offers were actually negotiated. Much of the first quarter’s sales data reflects offers negotiated in late 2012. In a rapidly changing market, we’re always looking in the rearview mirror.

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N2How Does Supply & Demand Affect Prices?
The past 18 months give a text book example of how the supply and demand dynamic affects home values. Months supply of inventory (MSI) measures the strength of buyer demand against the available inventory of homes to purchase: the lower the MSI, the hotter the market. The hotter the market, the greater the upward pressure on prices.

This link shows the details of the recent increases in median sales price:
SF Median Home Price by Month

N3Sales Prices Over & Under List Price
As the market has strengthened, the percentage of SF homes selling for over — and sometimes far over — list price, has soared to almost unbelievable levels. In the last 2 months, 30% of SF house sales have sold for 15% or more above asking price.

This link shows the huge decline in inventory since the market turnaround began. Typically, we see a surge in early spring. Not this year, at least not so far:
Inventory of Listings for Sale

N4Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
This is another excellent indicator of demand vs. supply, and it is now at the highest levels in memory for virtually all property types.

This link goes to our chart on average days on market. Generally speaking, the hotter the market, the faster listings go into contract and that is what we are indeed seeing now:
Average Days on Market

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2013 SoMa-South Beach Market Report

The South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena
& Mission Bay Condo Market

The Paragon Market Report

More condos sell in San Francisco’s South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city: This is where by far the greatest number of new condos has been built in the last 20 years. The market here heated up very rapidly in 2012, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has dwindled (contributing to the severe inventory crunch). This area is one of the world centers for high-tech and bio-tech businesses and homebuyers, and the ferocious demand competing for the very limited inventory have caused prices to jump dramatically.

Luxury condos here, in high prestige buildings, typically with spectacular views, sell for among the highest dollar per square foot values in the city. The largest sale reported to MLS in 2012 was $7,850,000 for a unit at the Millennium.

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Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 775 transactions totaling almost $700 million in sales in these neighborhoods. We’ve closed more than 170 sales of $1,000,000 plus, and almost two dozen of $2,000,000 or more. This is an area we know and love well.
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Sales by Price Range

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Long-Term Trends in Values

The following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distressed condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach/Yerba Buena and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends.

Here, we’ve limited the analyses to sales under $1,800,000: though this area has a large luxury component, the very high-end sales generally distort the averages for the vast majority of sales.

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Sales Over, Under and At List Price

As the market gets hotter, the percentage of listings selling for over asking price increases.

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Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos

A comparison of Median Price trends for 2-BR condos in 5 of the city’s neighborhoods. All 5 have been showing median price appreciation, but none more so than the South Beach and Yerba Buena neighborhoods.

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Number of Listings Sold

Very strong unit sales numbers in recent quarters and they would have been significantly higher if there were more listings available to buy. Distressed condo sales are rapidly declining as the market recovery has gained momentum.

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Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

An excellent statistic for measuring buyer demand against supply of inventory. The percentage is now at the highest point in memory.

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Condos for Sale

The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is seriously inadequate to meet market demand.

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The New-Development Condo Market

The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area: it’s been estimated that over 10,000 were built here in the first 10 years of the century. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Now, new construction is recovering in a big way — many big new projects are planned by some very well-known developers — but it will probably take about 2 years, more or less, before we see a large quantity of newly built condos coming on the market.

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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low — below 2 months – is considered to be indicative of a strong “Seller’s Market.”

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Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above

The number of condos selling for $1m and above is at its highest point in years: Sales increased in the 4th quarter even as inventory fell. Demand for higher-end condos in the best buildings is quite competitive now.

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Distressed Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area

Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area had more distressed condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distressed listings and sales has been rapidly declining with the market turnaround and looks to disappear completely in the near future.

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MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”

DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.

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San Francisco Residential Market Trends in Realtor District 5: Noe/ Castro/ Haight

A statistical market overview for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley & the Castro, Cole Valley,
Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights,
Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle

Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco’s central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview.

District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the market meltdown in September 2008. Values fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. The market started to turn around in 2011 and, now in 2012, the competition between buyers has become ferocious: inventory is very low and many of the listings are selling very quickly in multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations. This is exerting considerable upward pressure on prices: generally speaking, values are soaring once again.

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MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low.

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a “Seller’s market”, 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a “Buyer’s market.”

DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks — though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings.

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Newsletter: Is the SF Market Easing a Little?

Is the Ferocious SF Market Easing a Little?

October 2012 San Francisco Market Update

September brought a burst of new inventory that helped satisfy some of the fierce buyer demand for San Francisco homes. Anecdotally, word on the street is that the market may have calmed down a little after Labor Day: not every listing is selling immediately amid high numbers of competing offers — though this may simply reflect the temporary increase in new listings, or sellers too hopeful in their asking prices. But it also appears that home price appreciation has been stabilizing or at least slowing in the last quarter after the big jump earlier in the year. It’s still too early for conclusions: Since most statistics are like looking in a rearview mirror, what is happening today will only become clear in coming months.

Even if the market has eased a little, it is still very strong and very competitive by any historical measure.

Below are 2 updated, mapped analyses of median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. Almost all the current values reflect a significant jump from 2011: for the city overall, the increase has been in the 10 to 12% range, but it can vary from 4% to 18% by neighborhood and property type.

Median Sales Prices

After the big jump early in the year, median price appreciation for both house and condos appear to have stabilized or slowed – at least for the city as a whole. (Market conditions vary widely by neighborhood.) The median sales price for non-distressed SF condos now slightly exceeds the median price in 2007, the last peak of the market, while that of SF houses is only 5% below 2007. We have similar charts going back 15 to 30 years available on our website.

Inventory

September had the highest number of new listings of any month in the past year, though well below previous Septembers: 760 new home listings in September 2012 vs. 888 in 2011 and 1138 in 2010. This significantly, if temporarily, expanded the choice of homes available to buyers. But now, in October, the number of new listings is dwindling again and inventory is still drastically low by any historical measure. Overall, in the third quarter, there were 1100 fewer listings than in the same period last year, but the number of sales increased by 21%.

2-Bedroom Condo Median Prices

In the 5 areas shown, condo values jumped across the board, though the most dramatic increase from the bottom of the market has been in South Beach/Yerba Buena — where in the last 2 quarters, the median price surged ahead of that for Pacific and Presidio Heights. Noe and Eureka Valleys and surrounding neighborhoods, SoMa and Hayes Valley/NoPa have also seen large increases. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Average Dollar per Square Foot House Values

Though pretty much all SF neighborhoods are seeing increases in dollar per square foot values for houses, the more affluent districts 5 (Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys) and 7 (Pacific Heights-Marina) have seen some of the largest jumps. In the last 2 quarters, District 5 hit a point matching the peak of the market in 2007. If you’d like data on a neighborhood not listed, please let us know.

Luxury Home Sales

Comparing the 3rd Quarter 2012 with 3rd Quarter 2011, MLS listings of San Francisco homes of $1,500,000 and above increased by 23% and sales soared by 54%. This map shows where those sales occurred: 18 in the Sea Cliff/ Lake Street/ Richmond district; 26 in the Pacific Heights/ Marina district; 21 in Russian/ Nob/ Telegraph Hills; 19 in the greater SoMa/South Beach area; 53 in the Noe/ Eureka/ Cole Valleys district; 10 in the St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill district; 2 in Potrero Hill and 3 in Bernal Heights. The highest prices are still generally achieved in the band of very affluent neighborhoods running across the northern boundary of the city, though growth in the number of luxury home sales is strongest in the central and northeastern areas.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

Still bumping along at the lowest levels in memory. MSI reflects the amount of time it would take to sell the current inventory of homes for sale at the existing rate of sales. Lower MSI means higher demand as compared to supply.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

Houses, condos and TICs all hit historic highs in the 54% to 60% range earlier in the year, but have now fallen back a bit. In the third quarter, TICs saw a rather large decrease, but their percentage is still much higher than in the last four calendar years. The percentages for houses and condos are still extraordinarily high. This statistic is one of the clearest measures of supply and demand.

Average Days on Market

For those listings that did accept offers in September, the average days on market was the lowest in a long while. Many new listings, especially those considered most appealing and well-priced, are accepting offers within 7 to 10 days of coming on market.