Author: Misha Weidman

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The 2015 San Francisco Real Estate Wrap-Up

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Happy New Year everyone!  San Francisco residential real estate recorded another year of double-digit appreciation last year.  Our Chief Market Analyst has been busy slicing and dicing the data every which-way, and has created over 20 charts that serve up the market from soup to nuts (which, is exactly how some people view it!).  You can experience the full meal at Paragon Real Estate Group’s main website.  I’m doing the prix fixe menu here for those with less time and/or appetite.

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“Bubble” or “Breather”: Whither San Francisco’s Home Market?

image001Just a few days ago, The San Francisco Business Times reported that a third of the national housing experts surveyed by Zillow described the Bay Area’s housing market as being currently in a bubble. Here’s the table that shows how the experts came out on the “bubble” question, courtesy of Pulsenomics, who conducted the survey for Zillow.

Continue reading ““Bubble” or “Breather”: Whither San Francisco’s Home Market?”

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It’s Now a Buyers’ Market for Higher End Homes and Condos

“Months’ Supply of Inventory,” or MSI, shows the theoretical number of months needed to “absorb” available homes for sale in a given month based on the number of homes going into contract in a given month. The shorter the time period, the stronger the market for sellers, leading to upward pricing pressure.  Longer time periods indicate slower absorption and a buyers’ market.

The chart below illustrates the dramatic difference in MSI for homes up to the median price ($1.3 million for houses, $1.1 million for condos) and in the next price segment higher, versus the luxury home segment, defined here as houses selling for $2,000,000+ and condos for $1,500,000+. (By this definition, luxury sales currently make up about 20% of San Francisco’s home sales.)
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The Autumn SF Real Estate Market Survey: “We are neither blind optimists, nor inveterate pessimists….”

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Our Chief Market Analyst, Patrick Carlisle, was recently quoted in a Vanity Fair article in the same paragraph as renowned economist John Maynard Keynes. The subject, a perennial one these days: whether the Silicon Valley, which now indisputably extends north at least as far as the new Salesforce Tower at 415 Mission Street, is in a bubble that’s about to pop. Of course, Keynes is long-dead, but we at Paragon are lucky to have our own resident guru sifting the tea leaves.

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“Fall” is in the Air?

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My last newsletter, entitled “The Crash That Wasn’t (At Least Not Yet ),” was among my most popular ever. The teaser headline may have had something to do with it. We continue the sensationalist theme here with some observations on the start of the Fall housing market season – typically one of the busiest times.

At our regular sales meeting this morning, attended by around 60 of our finest San Francisco agents, the main topic was whether collectively we were seeing a significant change in market conditions from say, the Spring of 2015. As I’ve said before, things generally slow down a bit in the summer and then heat up in September before cooling off again at Thanksgiving as the holidays and the cold weather kick in. The consensus was that this summer followed the typical pattern. But is what we’ve seen over the last few months just seasonal or is something more fundamental going on, Continue reading ““Fall” is in the Air?”

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Cheat Sheets for (Almost) Everything You Wanted to Know About Rent Control, Owner Move-In Evictions, and Condo Conversion in San Francisco

“June Gloom” has arrived in San Francisco. We’re talking about the weather, not the housing market, though buyers may well continue to feel gloomy as the market shows no signs of letting up. Both condo and home prices continue to hit record highs, with the average home selling for 10% over the original asking price.

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There may be a typical summer slowdown (reflected in the trailing drop in third quarter numbers above) as the Continue reading “Cheat Sheets for (Almost) Everything You Wanted to Know About Rent Control, Owner Move-In Evictions, and Condo Conversion in San Francisco”