Author: Misha Weidman

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Real Data SF November Newsletter

Welcome to the very first edition of Real Data SF, a monthly newsletter about the San Francisco real estate market.

If real data, with lots of charts and analysis is your cup of tea, then please read on. Because that’s what I’ll be doing here. In addition, there’ll be the occasional recipe, restaurant review, and heads-up on fun stuff to do in SF. Comments, feedback, suggestions, always welcome of course. Now let’s crunch some numbers!

San Francisco’s Housing Market Kicks in the After-Burners

Many people who don’t necessarily follow real estate that closely aren’t aware that SF’s residential market has been on fire since the start of 2012. Take a look at this chart:

Starting in January, demand – followed by prices – took off. After a steep climb through April, prices took a breather through the summer – only to take off again in autumn.

What’s more, because this chart includes both distressed and non-distressed sales across all neighborhoods in SF – from Seacliff mansions to Bayview bungalows– it doesn’t reflect the extent to which the middle and upper end of the housing market has recovered. If you look at non-distressed sales above $1.5 million – and that’s hardly a luxury home in SF any more – prices on a per square foot basis are within striking distance of their 2008 all-time highs, fueled by an enormous rally in the third quarter.

Will this continue? Though activity typically slows down during the winter and holiday months, we’re not sure it’s going to happen this year. Why? High demand and very low inventory.

For more charts, including one that shows our bubble-pop-recovery cycle all the way back to 1982, click here.

Only sales reported to MLS are included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. (c) Paragon Real Estate Group

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SF Luxury Home Report

The San Francisco Luxury Home Market

A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group

The luxury home market in San Francisco – typically defined as houses, condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more – experienced a big surge in activity in the second quarter of 2012. The third quarter saw a decline typical for the summer months, but was still 50% higher than the third quarter of last year. With the increased demand has come a significant increase in values throughout the city.

The SF luxury home segment is currently made up of three dynamics: 1) general-appeal (often spectacular), well-priced listings that buyers are jumping all over and often bidding up far over the asking price, 2) listings that the market has deemed considerably overpriced – by hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars – that the market is generally ignoring, and 3) niche or special-circumstance properties for which there is an extremely limited buyer pool – even if priced fairly, these can take some time to sell.

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Sales Over, Under & At List Price

In the third quarter, a high percentage, 44%, of luxury home sales in San Francisco sold for above asking price; 15% sold for at least 10% over asking price – an indication of very strong demand; 42% sold below original list price; and 14% closed at list price. It should be noted that a fair number of high-end homes have sold off-market in 2012, i.e., not listed or reported to MLS, from which we derive our data.

Average Dollar per Square Foot

Luxury homes throughout the city have seen a substantial jump in dollar per square foot values since 2011. Values vary widely by neighborhood and property type, and can generally range anywhere from $500 to $2000 per square foot. The highest per square foot values are typically found in the most prestigious mansions on the north side of town and in penthouse condos in the South Beach/ Yerba Buena and Pacific Heights/ Russian Hill areas. Absolutely spectacular views are a common aspect of these sales.

Luxury Home Unit Sales

The second and third quarters of 2012 saw the highest number of luxury home sales of any quarter since 2008. The decline in the third quarter was typical for this market segment during the summer months, and was over 50% higher than the third quarter of 2011.

Sales Price to Original List Price by Days on Market

Most of the luxury homes that sell are sold relatively quickly after the listings arrive on market, and these sales are selling for an average of 102% of list price. Those listings that go through price reductions sell at a significant discount to original price and spend almost 3 months longer on market. And even in a strong market, a solid percentage of listings don’t sell at all, almost always due to being perceived as overpriced.

Inventory of Available Listings

As is typical, September was the month with the highest number of new listings hitting the market, which often leads to an autumn surge in closed sales. It is almost certain that the number of new listings and available inventory will now continue to dwindle until the new year begins. More often than not, the luxury home market goes into a semi-hibernation from Thanksgiving to mid-January.

San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales by District and Price Range

Home sales with a price of $1,500,000 and above now take place across the city, but the sales cluster in certain areas and prices vary widely by location. These 4 charts break the luxury home market into price segments and property types by Realtor district.

SF HOUSES Selling for $1,500,000 to $1,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $2,000,000 to $4,999,999

SF HOUSES Selling for $5,000,000 or More 

SF CONDOS, CO-OPS & TICs Selling for $1,500,000 or More 

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When Zen Meets Myst

 

 

You get to see a lot of homes in this business.  And to be honest, pretty soon one “gorgeously renovated, top-of-the-line remodel” looks pretty much like the next.  The same glass tile backsplash; the same exotic wood flooring; and goodness knows, the same white, or taupe, or ever-so-elegant pastel color palette.

But once in a while you come across a house that is so unusual, so unapologetically personal, that you simply have to marvel at the vision of the architect and the courage of the owner.

 

467 Duncan is such a house.  Completely rebuilt around 2005, it looks like the sort of Zen temple you might find in the lost world of Myst.

Where to start?  Perhaps the spiral staircase enclosed in an open air tower that leads up from one master bedroom to a cat-walk across the roof and then down to another bedroom, and to a hidden side-garden, and – through a curving copper door – surprise!, back into the living room!

Or I could mention the stair detail in the wall (see the picture below) that leads to a literal cat-walk  at ceiling height, so that the owners’ cats would have a cool way to get from room to room.

Or the bedrooms, with real shoji screens,exquisitely restrained wood cabinetry and a perimeter of loose black river pebbles.  “Organic” doesn’t begin to describe.  This is architectural sculpture.

Four bedrooms, three baths, and over 2,850 sf, it’s been priced at $2.4 million and now it’s at $2.175.  I’ve seen plenty of houses with no character and less to offer sell for much more.

But. But….  How do you value a house like this?  It’s so personal that no amount of staging can stage the personality out of it.   Its uniqueness defies an easy “fix.”  Or any fix for that matter.  Raze it and start again?  Not at that price.  And besides, that would be criminal.

So 467 Duncan waits like an inscrutable puzzle in Myst for the right owner to come and unlock its secrets.  So far it’s been waiting 70 days.

I’m sending the owner and the agent the Zen equivalent of luck.  They deserve it.

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And Now for Something Completely Different

A long time ago, a famous old Greek fart said “No one ever steps into the same river twice.”   Perhaps that’s a little high falutin’ for what I did a month ago – ergo my preference for Monty Python’s pithy version – but this much is true:  change is constant, and never more so than in our professional lives.

So, after about a decade of working as an independent real estate broker I’ve decided to join forces with Paragon Real Estate Group as a broker-associate.  Why?

Two reasons.  First, they are, simply put, a great group of people.  Smart, ethical, professional, and diverse.  There’s a certain synergy in this business – maybe in all businesses – that comes from working with other like-minded people.  And after just a few weeks of working at Paragon, I already see the benefits of being able to get a broader sense of what’s going on in the market than what I could possibly get on my own.

Second, they’ll provide me with the infrastructure I need to take my business to the next level.

Our courtship began with the most unromantic of subjects:  data. Over the years, I’d asked Patrick Carlisle, Paragon’s Chief Market Analyst and Head of Business Development whether I could repost some of his charts here. When, after several emails back and forth about market metrics he suggested I let them do the data-crunching and that I come and work for them, I was intrigued.  Meeting him and other managers at Paragon in person won me over.

What does this mean for you, gentle reader?  In coming weeks you should see some significant improvements on this site, beginning with far more regular posts. My focus will continue to be on data.  From time to time, I’ll also post on other subjects close to my heart – a favorite recipe or restaurant, for example.  As always your comments, suggestions and support are much appreciated.

So, without further ado, it’s time to jump into that brand new river!

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With Facebook Not Looking So Good, Is the Bloom Off the Rose in San Francisco’s Residential Home Market

My wife likes to remind me that I always seem to think that the stock market is heading down.  Though I don’t generally think of myself as a half empty kind of guy, there may be some truth to the rap.

So, what to make of a recent article in the New York Times that sees echoes of the 2000 dot-com bust in the disappointing performance of Facebook and other new-tech companies like Zynga and Groupon? Continue reading “With Facebook Not Looking So Good, Is the Bloom Off the Rose in San Francisco’s Residential Home Market”

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Listed to Luxe in Under 30 Days

2601 Broadway Terrace -- $11 million, going gone

Actually, in the case of 2601 Broadway Terrace, the 9,700 sf, 7 BR 6 BA beauty shown above, $11 million was enough to take the property from “Just Listed” to “Sold” in — zero days.  For moving that fast, the buyer get a cool $950,000 off the asking price.   — Proving once again that time is money, at least for those who have the latter in buckets.

The full story is more complicated.  It was originally listed back in February 2009 for $13.5 million.  It’s been on and off the market ever since — with a fresh   start date for that “Days on Market” statistic each time it was put back on.  Last time’s the charm…. Continue reading “Listed to Luxe in Under 30 Days”